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Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!
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Gulf area continues to develop:
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
Especially important to Ham ops like me because this will likely affect our field day exercises.
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
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i would like to note that even though Chris is a fish storm, it has become the first official hurricane of the season.---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
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Look at the pic:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_at...area1#contents Folks in Peninsular FL need to be watching this storm, there's another trough due through the weekend that could steer this thing right up the I-4 Corridor!1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COASTOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OFCLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THECENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRALCUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITEDATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMIS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARESLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSOIMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENTOF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COASTSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THEWEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEYUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGHSATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULEDTO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
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Still watching:
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
That update was from 8am, they just released a new update:
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
Check out the regional radar loop.
What you are seeing is the low beginning to circulate around a center.
I predict a TD by 00:00GMT (8pm EDT)
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
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Stay Tuned for Further Development!
I work a monster shift on Saturdays, so I don't know how much attention I'll be able to pay to this storm system today, but it does look like we will see something out of this:
1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
UBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
ECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
2PM Update:
1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCEDATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINEDSURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATERTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTIONOF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THISAREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVYRAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ANDMUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCEWINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASESEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS DEBBY: Update 1
Full Update:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.
DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Guys, watch this storm. MOST track it west, but some important ones track it east. I think it's a throw of the dice right now!---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS Debby: Update 2
The westward track is now looking more likely!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240257
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND
NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT
WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE
WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.
DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS DEBBY: LOL update.
Ok, this is from the earlier discussion:
WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FL Panhandle folks are under a ts watch, Froom the Ochlockonee river, west to the Miss/Al border, and Coastal La, from the Pearl river west to Morgan city.
Pictures:
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS DEBBY: Discussion 5
More LOL action, Avila is a good guesser, so read this and ponder...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.
DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents
ALL GULF COAST RESIDENTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS STORM!
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS DEBBY: Significant forcast update!
It's been raining over 24 hours here, but it's been pretty slow, until this afternoon we'd only accumulated about 1.5", now it's been coming down more.
Check this pic out:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
Rough day,
kids are antsy from all the rain, my wife hurt her back Saturday, and we've been dealing with that all weekend. Had a couple of Tornado warns, no damage, just rain, we are up around 2.5-3 inches so far.
Lots more expected, it's quiet now though.
Notice the distinct lack of motion in Debby,
Important discussion bits:
DEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN
UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE
INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE
HWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS.
---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
---------------
Comment
-
TS DEBBY: Still there, still in one place.
Storm Stands Still.
Good Grief.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 250838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
MAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.---------------
HV FN ES 73!
http://skattagun.blogspot.com
"3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
--Spock
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