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Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

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  • #31
    I lived through 3 hurricanes in South Florida. This is a vid of some of the supplies I stocked up just for Hurricanes last season.




    Hope no one has to experience the property damage or loss of life. Be prepared in advance. Stay safe.
    EXPECT THE BEST - PREPARE FOR THE WORSE

    KEEP ON PREPPING

    Comment


    • #32
      Gulf area continues to develop:

      1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
      IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
      THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
      NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
      STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
      DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
      SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
      THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
      PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
      REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
      POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
      FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.


      Especially important to Ham ops like me because this will likely affect our field day exercises.

      ---------------
      HV FN ES 73!
      http://skattagun.blogspot.com
      "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
      --Spock
      ---------------

      Comment


      • #33
        i would like to note that even though Chris is a fish storm, it has become the first official hurricane of the season.
        ---------------
        HV FN ES 73!
        http://skattagun.blogspot.com
        "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
        --Spock
        ---------------

        Comment


        • #34
          Look at the pic:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_at...area1#contents Folks in Peninsular FL need to be watching this storm, there's another trough due through the weekend that could steer this thing right up the I-4 Corridor!
          1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COASTOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OFCLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THECENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRALCUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITEDATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMIS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARESLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSOIMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENTOF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COASTSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THEWEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEYUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGHSATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULEDTO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
          Last edited by qrprat77; 06-21-2012, 08:44 PM. Reason: More facts, less derp.
          ---------------
          HV FN ES 73!
          http://skattagun.blogspot.com
          "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
          --Spock
          ---------------

          Comment


          • #35
            Still watching:
            1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
            PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
            PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
            CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
            APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
            NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
            THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING
            THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
            STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
            THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
            POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
            FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
            AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
            NECESSARY.



            That update was from 8am, they just released a new update:

            1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
            CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST
            NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
            OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
            HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
            APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
            A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
            THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. INTERESTS
            ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
            THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
            FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
            CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.


            Check out the regional radar loop.

            What you are seeing is the low beginning to circulate around a center.
            I predict a TD by 00:00GMT (8pm EDT)
            Last edited by qrprat77; 06-22-2012, 02:32 PM. Reason: ~Just now new info~
            ---------------
            HV FN ES 73!
            http://skattagun.blogspot.com
            "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
            --Spock
            ---------------

            Comment


            • #36
              Stay Tuned for Further Development!

              I work a monster shift on Saturdays, so I don't know how much attention I'll be able to pay to this storm system today, but it does look like we will see something out of this:


              1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
              GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
              MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
              ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
              EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
              EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
              WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
              MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
              THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
              90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
              NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

              TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
              THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
              SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND
              LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
              UBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
              ECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
              AFTERNOON.
              Keep your weather eye out!
              ---------------
              HV FN ES 73!
              http://skattagun.blogspot.com
              "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
              --Spock
              ---------------

              Comment


              • #37
                2PM Update:

                1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCEDATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINEDSURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATERTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS.


                TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTIONOF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THISAREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVYRAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ANDMUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCEWINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASESEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
                Flageorgiabamans are in for a soakin' methinks!
                ---------------
                HV FN ES 73!
                http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                --Spock
                ---------------

                Comment


                • #38
                  TS DEBBY: Update 1

                  Full Update:

                  000
                  WTNT44 KNHC 232052
                  TCDAT4

                  TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
                  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
                  400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

                  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
                  THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
                  GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
                  SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
                  HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
                  KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

                  DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
                  CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
                  RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
                  STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
                  COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
                  THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
                  THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
                  GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
                  EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
                  AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
                  SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
                  ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
                  NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
                  EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

                  DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
                  CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
                  HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
                  IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
                  OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
                  INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
                  FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
                  BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
                  THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
                  SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

                  DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
                  SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
                  ON JULY 5TH.


                  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

                  INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
                  12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
                  24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
                  36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
                  48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
                  72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
                  96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
                  120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

                  $$
                  FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

                  Pictures:


                  Guys, watch this storm. MOST track it west, but some important ones track it east. I think it's a throw of the dice right now!
                  ---------------
                  HV FN ES 73!
                  http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                  "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                  --Spock
                  ---------------

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    TS Debby: Update 2

                    The westward track is now looking more likely!


                    000
                    WTNT44 KNHC 240257
                    TCDAT4

                    TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
                    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
                    1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

                    DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE
                    UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
                    COMPONENT.
                    SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND
                    NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT
                    WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
                    IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
                    DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN
                    THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE
                    WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS
                    INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
                    INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

                    DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
                    . MULTIPLE
                    LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
                    SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
                    A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
                    THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
                    NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
                    THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
                    SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
                    HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
                    DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
                    THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
                    RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
                    AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS.
                    THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
                    THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
                    WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
                    HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
                    GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
                    ..EXCEPT
                    FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
                    MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
                    ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
                    VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
                    FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
                    FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
                    WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
                    ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.
                    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
                    ADVISORY TRACK.

                    MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
                    GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
                    SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
                    MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
                    MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
                    ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
                    96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
                    THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
                    THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
                    LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
                    HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.

                    Pictures:
                    ---------------
                    HV FN ES 73!
                    http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                    "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                    --Spock
                    ---------------

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      TS DEBBY: LOL update.

                      Ok, this is from the earlier discussion:

                      WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
                      BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
                      AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
                      MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
                      STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
                      ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
                      THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
                      NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
                      THAT TRACK
                      SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
                      BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE
                      0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
                      EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
                      SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
                      IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
                      NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
                      TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
                      NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

                      NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


                      FL Panhandle folks are under a ts watch, Froom the Ochlockonee river, west to the Miss/Al border, and Coastal La, from the Pearl river west to Morgan city.

                      Pictures:



                      ---------------
                      HV FN ES 73!
                      http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                      "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                      --Spock
                      ---------------

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        TS DEBBY: Discussion 5

                        More LOL action, Avila is a good guesser, so read this and ponder...

                        000
                        WTNT44 KNHC 241458
                        TCDAT4
                        TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
                        NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
                        1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
                        IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
                        DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
                        KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
                        SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
                        AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.

                        DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
                        NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
                        FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
                        POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE
                        OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
                        FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
                        GUIDANCE.

                        THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
                        TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
                        MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
                        TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
                        WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
                        HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
                        MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
                        CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
                        WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
                        MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
                        NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
                        SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
                        AT ANY TIME.
                        FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
                        INIT 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
                        12H 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
                        24H 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
                        36H 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
                        48H 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
                        72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
                        96H 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
                        120H 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
                        $$
                        FORECASTER AVILA
                        Pictures:
                        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents

                        ALL GULF COAST RESIDENTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS STORM!



                        Last edited by qrprat77; 06-24-2012, 11:42 AM. Reason: forgot content. DERP
                        ---------------
                        HV FN ES 73!
                        http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                        "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                        --Spock
                        ---------------

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Looking like its getting wet and wild down there
                          You know what ol' Jack Burton always says at a time like this?

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            TS DEBBY: Significant forcast update!

                            It's been raining over 24 hours here, but it's been pretty slow, until this afternoon we'd only accumulated about 1.5", now it's been coming down more.


                            Check this pic out:


                            000
                            WTNT44 KNHC 242034
                            TCDAT4
                            TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
                            NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
                            400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
                            THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
                            ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
                            ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
                            MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
                            THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
                            SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
                            TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
                            FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
                            HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
                            NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
                            MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
                            NOT COMPLETELY
                            ...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
                            GULF.
                            HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
                            FORECAST.
                            DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
                            IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
                            RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
                            INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
                            MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
                            REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
                            STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
                            WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
                            THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.


                            FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
                            INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
                            12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
                            24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
                            36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
                            48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
                            72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
                            96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
                            120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
                            $$
                            FORECASTER AVILA


                            ---------------
                            HV FN ES 73!
                            http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                            "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                            --Spock
                            ---------------

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Rough day,
                              kids are antsy from all the rain, my wife hurt her back Saturday, and we've been dealing with that all weekend. Had a couple of Tornado warns, no damage, just rain, we are up around 2.5-3 inches so far.
                              Lots more expected, it's quiet now though.
                              Notice the distinct lack of motion in Debby,


                              Important discussion bits:
                              DEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO
                              A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
                              FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN
                              UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
                              CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE
                              INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
                              SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
                              OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL
                              INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
                              FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE
                              HWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS.


                              ---------------
                              HV FN ES 73!
                              http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                              "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                              --Spock
                              ---------------

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                TS DEBBY: Still there, still in one place.

                                Storm Stands Still.
                                Good Grief.
                                000
                                WTNT44 KNHC 250838
                                TCDAT4
                                TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
                                NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
                                400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
                                DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
                                ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
                                THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
                                CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
                                AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
                                ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
                                WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
                                DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
                                CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
                                TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
                                LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
                                FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
                                HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
                                BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN
                                A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
                                ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
                                DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
                                FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
                                GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
                                MAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
                                MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
                                LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
                                A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
                                THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
                                GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
                                OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
                                ---------------
                                HV FN ES 73!
                                http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                                "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                                --Spock
                                ---------------

                                Comment

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