Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[qrprat77]

Well folks, storm season is a couple weeks early this year:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204914.shtml?5day?large#contents

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Lowdown3]

Great job! Thanks for posting these. I'm gonna tack this again and we'll leave it up for hurricane season.

[qrprat77]

Sounds good, I'll put most reports here, as I can get to them :)
if a storm seems significant, we will spawn another thread, and track progress there.

[qrprat77]

TS Alberto: 23:00 EDT Update 5/19

Discussion:

THE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS
EVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS
STRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE
DECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG
WITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
WEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS.

Please also consult the wind speed probablity map, looks like Coastal Carolinas could get a lil' gusty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025347.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

[qrprat77]

TS: Alberto 05:00 EDT 05/20

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
gENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

I bolded the interesting parts.

Here's a link to a picture:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114155.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

[qrprat77]

My last update for Alberto unless it does something interesting:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 210841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

[Mannlicher]

here, and gone. Just like last year, and the couple of years before that. Nothing to see folks, just move along........................... :)

[qrprat77]

SubTropical Storm BERYL! update #1

Ok, folks, serious heads up for East side Flageorgabamans.
This is a SERIOUS RAIN EVENT!
Pretty Picture:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024328.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260243
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS
FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS
COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. AROUND 2200
UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH
PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE
AROUND 1001 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY COOLED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND
TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT
THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...
THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY
LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN
ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN
THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY
EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS
ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MARGINALLY WARM WATERS
AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS
INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM. ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 32.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 31.2N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[qrprat77]

STS Beryl Upate (05:00 EDT)

Short update because the next NHC update is at 11:

THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS
STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER

LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITHSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

Link to the three day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/025049.shtml?3day?large#contents

[Hawkeye]

Based on the current model track, the center of Beryl should be directly on top of me at 2 am. Monday.

[qrprat77]

Here's the full 11:00 EDT update:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 261445
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

BERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL.

BERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE
THAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS
BEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
HWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES
ITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY
NEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL
EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 31.6N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 31.1N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 30.4N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 30.5N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

Link to the three day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144644.shtml?3day#contents

I highlighted and underlined what I consider the meat of the bulletin.
This will be a RAIN EVENT folks. If you have a field, are in the path of the storm, and you've been dry for a little while, TILL YOUR GROUND! Might be a good time to run a box blade over your pasture too. Dry ground is more hydroscopic when you break up the hard pan, but then again, you probably already know that.

As far as storm specifcs are concerned:
watch this movie of the Infrared satellite imagery of the region:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

you get a clear look at how the dry air is being sucked into the storm, and interfering with its development.

[qrprat77]

Based on the current model track, the center of Beryl should be directly on top of me at 2 am. Monday.

Stay dry brother!
and if you need help storing any stock you may have, to keep it from the deluge you know, I have a place in Lakeland! :D

[qrprat77]

Rain On the Way!

New Info:
Here's a place folks along the Florida/Georgia border may want to bookmark:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Tropical%20Storm%20Warning

Statement from link below, I will highlight some pertinant info:




SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1214 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND BRYAN...COASTAL BRYAN...INLAND CHATHAM...COASTAL CHATHAM...
LONG...INLAND LIBERTY...COASTAL LIBERTY...INLAND MCINTOSH...
COASTAL MCINTOSH...INLAND JASPER...BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON
AND COASTAL JASPER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND TIDAL BERKELEY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6N...LONGITUDE 76.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC...OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF
SAVANNAH GA. STORM MOTION WAS SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
SUBTROPICAL BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE SYSTEM IN ENCOUNTERING
DRY AIR AND IS STILL INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM WIND GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 300 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

SCZ047>049-051-262300-
/O.CON.KCHS.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-COASTAL JASPER-
1214 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
37 TO 47 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...MAINLY SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A STORM TIDE WITH PEAK INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST COASTAL
FLOODING INCLUDE WILL BE ALONG THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAYS AS WELL AS ESTUARIES AND INLETS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES FOR
TODAY. THE RISK FOR MORE POWERFUL AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BERYL DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
REGION AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD.

[qrprat77]

Beryl Update: Much the Same

From the NHC:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 262055
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS
INTENSITY.

Pictures for the reading challenged:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205608.shtml?3day?large#contents

Bout time to ask the question, who's in the path of the storm besides Hawkeye?
Does anyone have a rain gauge?
Should we spin off a Beryl report page? storm itself isn't that big of a deal (other than as a rainmaker) so it might be a good chance to practice info sharing, and such.
Radio frequencies anyone?

[qrprat77]

STS Beryl: 23:00 EDT Update

Quoting info:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 270241
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF
40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF
CONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER.