Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[qrprat77]

TS DEBBY: 11:30AM EDT

Finally Debby is shown tracking east:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152914.shtml?5day#contents

000
WTNT44 KNHC 251451
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DEBBY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN A FRAGMENTED BAND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS AFFECTING THE STORM. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF DEBBY HAS INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING AND COOLING
UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE AND MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. WITH DRY AIR LURKING AND
WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN LINE
WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD SHORT-TERM MOTION.
AT THE MOMENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT MOTION REPRESENTS
A MEANDERING OR A MORE DECIDED MOTION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...DEBBY
IS TRAPPED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING IN BETWEEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAUSING DEBBY TO MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
COULD LEAVE DEBBY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENT AGAIN AFTER THAT TIME.
SINCE YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY THE UKMET NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION
BY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 28.6N 85.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[qrprat77]

I'm tired of this storm.

A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.

[WiseOwl]

Shoo some of that rain north man. Gonna be 94+ the rest of the week. Acclimate in office attire? Made a 90 in Matts Heat Class

[Preppergirl]

Ditto, I'm a little tired of the rain. I'm a lot tired of the tornado warnings. Could always be worse.

[qrprat77]

Hey Guys!
More lil' Debby!

000
WTNT44 KNHC 260841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
DEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E.
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN SPITE OF ITS
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR
APALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND. DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES
OVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND
TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY
BEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO
MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS. WHEREAS THE LATTER
SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 29.0N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.0N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.0N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.1N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 29.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 29.9N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 30.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 31.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

It's about to pick up and get on outta here!
maybe.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/090410.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Winding down, going away soon:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262059
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE MISSION THAT ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED
ON THOSE DATA...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IN THE FACE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEBBY IS GENERATING ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND HAS LESS THAN A
FULLY TROPICAL APPEARANCE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PASSAGE OF DEBBY OVER LAND...IN ADDITION TO THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS CITED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEBBY TO WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS
FAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE
AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AS ADVERTISED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS...DEBBY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/05. THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS RELATED TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-
TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE GFS
BRIEFLY SLOWS THE CYCLONE MOTION IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
FAILS TO CAPTURE DEBBY AS STRONGLY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

Pictures:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day?large#contents

[Not_Yet_Prepped]

With all the record heat and such an early start to the season, I am worried this is only the beginning! You coastal citizens be ready!

[Irish-Tech]

It's bad of me, but I look forward to hurricane season, I always secretly hope a big one will hit the home town and wash the rats out. Maybe, just maybe if I'm lucky they wont come back.

[tech]

Usually the rats are either the ones to stay, or the first ones back. That's what .22s are for :)

[qrprat77]

Hey guys,
there's two spots in the Atlantic I'm watching, one doesn't have much potential, the other has been gaining potential over the last couple of days.
Stay tuned! Still hurricane season.

[qrprat77]

TD 5

Tropical Depression 5 is here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Expect a named storm soon.

[qrprat77]

TD 5 Advisory 3: 5am AST 08/02/2012

Here's the only advisory I will publish for TD5 until it becomes a storm.
From:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020841.shtml?

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.3N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.7N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[qrprat77]

Ernesto is Here!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

That's the map!
Mostly in the Caribbean.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt In Oklahoma]

You all send some of that rain up here we are on day 27 above 100 and was 112 the last 2. Even the moonlight is hot here

[Irish-Tech]

yeah OK and AR are both hot and dry right now. lets hope we get a nice storm come through and run through those states.