Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[qrprat77]

Spaghetti model coutesy of http://www.wunderground.com/tropical..._ensmodel.html

[Irish-Tech]

I hope Isaac goes west, we can use the rain.

[qrprat77]

Here's the 11:00 EDT update:

[qrprat77]

Spaghetti models:

[qrprat77]

TD 10 is here!

Some discussion:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 221452
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE BOTH 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30KT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN
INTENSIFICATION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

I made bold some stuff about how Isaac could affect the storm.
The track has it fishing out so this will likely be the only update here unless something more happens:

[qrprat77]

TS Isaac

Brief update on the possibilities of Isaac to affect the Southeast later this week, and early next:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/15...AS IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH OF THE OBSERVED NORTHWARD NUDGE WAS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF
THE CENTER. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR OF
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF ISAAC ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
DURING THAT TIME. THIS EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR FORECASTS
OF THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BREAK THE RIDGE...AND THUS
FORECASTS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION NEAR OR SOUTH OF CUBA. THE
CANADIAN AND NOGAPS HAVE A LARGE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND TURN ISAAC
NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA. THE UKMET HAS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MOVES THE CYCLONE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE GFS SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...
BUT FORECASTS ISAAC TO BYPASS THE BREAK AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS DECREASED-CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
LIE NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

I'll post pics after the 5pm update on this storm, because the 5 day track is very uncertain right now, and a lot of it depends on the interaction of current rainy weather in the area.

[Grand58742]

Looks like TD10 might follow close to the same track if it upgrades to TS or Hurricane.

Caribbean is getting slammed this year.

[qrprat77]

TS Isaac: Map update

Ok, folks,
Here's a Map:

[qrprat77]

TS Isaac

Little change in the storm's structure. It's pretty big overall, but not very well defined,
inside baseball has me guessing that this storm will track a little further east than this plot, but further west than initially feared. FL Peninsula to receive wind/rain, but not landfall. Of course that will change. Tanks are topped off here, plan in place. Time to wait and see!
here's a pic of the NHC track map:

[Hawkeye]

Not buying the current track.

[qrprat77]

Care to elaborate? Gut feeling? inside baseball?
Here's something interesting to contemplate, the storm isn't over the warmest water it will be over. Here's the current temp plot for the Atlantic region:


Notice how much hotter the Gulf is relative to the waters south of Hispanola right now? That means that any development after it crosses Cuba will be rapid and tight, like Charley in 2004.
Yep that's right. I think we are looking at something that has major hurricane potential. A lot of it is going to depend on where the latest front is when Isaac moves into the Gulf.
Oh, and 85% of the WX tracks had the storm moving east of where the official forecast is for now at the 02:00 Eastern time update last nite. Everything after 48hrs really is up for grabs.

[Hawkeye]

Gut feeling.... think Charley....

[qrprat77]

Gut feeling.... think Charley....

I copy that.
Charley and Donna were exceptional storms, I don't see the same situation here, other than the potential for rapid intensification when it gets back into open water. Charley spun up QUICK! and got nasty fast and stayed small.
I've been waiting for this graphic to come out and it's interesting because you really see how the models have lost some confidence in the track once we get about 48 hour out:

the 0200 pic had most of the models still scooting up the FL west coast, with a predicted track taking Isaac up the FL/AL border. Now the general track has shifted back east some, but the models are spreading out.

[qrprat77]

!!ATTENTION!!!

Are you a pretty color in this graph?

























I bet a lot of us are, we've been in the 20-30% range for a lil' while now.

Do you have gas?
Get it before 5pm today! I bet that's when the first rush will occur. Especially in the panhandle and southwest peninsula.
I can also tell you that there are certain grocery stores Popular in the Southeast that are drawing down some inventory in areas that may be affected. This fact made one rat on this board very miserable with alerts last nite... but I digress.
In short,
If you are in the pretty colored area on the graphic, review your hurricane plans!
Make your purchases today...

[Irish-Tech]

I expect it to stay in the gulf. they keep thinking it will follow the high pressure in the Atlantic but i disagree. Mississippi or Louisiana will get a direct hit and Florida with the dirty but glancing blow. But I'm not a professional.