Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[qrprat77]

A tropical storm watch has been issued for South Florida!

[qrprat77]

Updated Trac:

[qrprat77]

I'm opening a seperate thread for Isaac:

https://www.survivalandpreparednessforum.com/showthread.php?4784-Isaac-Updates-and-AAR-s

Significant updates to track will be updated there, as well as AAR's, live updates, and ham radio contact/test results.

[qrprat77]

Ok, so Hurricane Isaac is moving on shore,
and
Tropical Storm Kirk has formed in the Atlantic!
It's expected to be a fish storm, so I won't be posting updates on it unless something strange happens.

[Grand58742]

We'll be happy with the rain it will bring.

And "only" 39 MPH winds since it'll be a depression by that time? Shesh, that's like a calm day out here in OK! Maybe even call up Matt and go shooting lol.

"Just a aim it a hair to the left bud."

[qrprat77]

Heh,
Spot of nastiness coming out of the ICTZ right now:

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

This will be the next storm to watch.

[qrprat77]

Storm looks better organized than Kirk, when it is made a TD, I will display its track.

"1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."

[Grand58742]

Storm looks better organized than Kirk, when it is made a TD, I will display its track.

"1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."

She's now Leslie and got pretty strong pretty fast. Went from 40% chance of a storm to TS in less than two days.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 301730
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Looks like it will head out into the Atlantic...but way to close to the Lesser Antilles for my tastes.

[qrprat77]

Ok. I am sure Kirk is fished out, but Leslie could be an issue in a week or ten days.
Stay tuned...

[qrprat77]

Leslie looks like it will stay a fish storm...
some nastiness in the gulf though:

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST CONTINUES TOPRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTOF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEMARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THISSYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVERECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEMTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

I have to say, for being something in the north of the gulf, as part of a trough (part of Isaac maybe?) This storm looks fairly well put together already, I wouldn't be surprised if they TD'ed it tomorrow.

[qrprat77]

Atlantic side ICTZ making some trouble:

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[qrprat77]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/111440.shtml?

Sneaky bugger. Keep your eyes open!

[qrprat77]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../111440.shtml?
Sneaky bugger. Keep your eyes open!

And just like that Rafael is born!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023520.shtml?3-daynl

Shouldn't be a threat to land.

[qrprat77]

Sandy Has become Interesting.

Ok,Been watching this one a coupla days.Keep a weather eye out folks!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

[Grand58742]

Interesting predicted track. Anywhere from Miami to Cape Cod could be hit. These late season ones tend to get a bit squirrely

Might give Chris Christie a chance to yell at people on the beach again lol