Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[monkeybird]

Here in the Panhandle we have more rain than we can deal with. We've had nearly daily deluges of lightening, thunder and rain. My house got hit last Saturday blowing out all TV and internet service, garage door opener, dryer, printer, telephones, xbox, and the list goes on. We had unplugged the TVs and Computers, even with surge protectors, I didn't want to take a chance. Thank goodness for insurance. Two housed burned in my neighborhood over the past 2 weeks. I would LOVE to send you guys some rain!

[qrprat77]

Things are getting right sporty.
Ernesto is still there:

THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND
THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.

Here's the map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114907.shtml?5day?large#contents

Also there are two spots where development is possible over the next coupla days, including another storm off the coast of Africa in the ICTZ.
'Tis the season!

[qrprat77]

Latest Ernesto map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023903.shtml?5day?large#contents

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

Keep an eye out too Flageorgiabamans!
There's something fishy looking in the Bahamas.
And we have TD 6 in the East Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

[Grand58742]

Looks like TD6 has made it into the big leagues. Tropical Storm Florence has been born.

Doesn't look like it'll amount to much. And I hope I just didn't jinx anyone.

[qrprat77]

Florence is so fresh they haven't even issued a new advisory on it yet!
lol
They still have the 5am AST info up calling it TD6 still, even though on the main page it's being called "Florence". Like Grand said though, doesn't look like much right now, and dry air should prevent it from becoming anything.

Ernesto on the other hand seems to be bearing down on Jamaica and Mexico:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Here's the map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/114106.shtml?5day?large#contents

If it hooks far enough north, Texas and OK could get some rain!
and wind!

[qrprat77]

Ernesto continues to strengthen, and plod through the Caribbean:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/000009.shtml?5day?large#contents

Florence is weak, and looks to fish out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203443.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Ernesto showed signs of weakness, it seems some midlevel dry air and shear are affecting the convection:

DATA FROM THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO ERNESTO
SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DISORGANIZED.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 1009 MB ON THE LAST FIX AND THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT NEAR
THE CENTER. THE PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT AND THE
HIGHEST SFMR WINDS WERE 40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAOB DATA FROM CURACAO...MODEL
ANALYSES AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE IMPINGING ON ERNESTO FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR
IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS MAY
BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST DAY
OR SO. DESPITE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE GFDL
AND HWRF NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT AT A
SLOWER RATE COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT
TIME THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING LAND...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE
AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.

Still have to see what it will do once it gets to the gulf, seems like it takes a veer off to Mexico.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/120257.shtml?5day?large#contents

all in all still a long way off.

Florence still ain't amountin' to much, but I notice that it's still a storm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/083811.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

The Coolest Thing about Ernesto

Was that it's redeveloping in the Pacific!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/111653.shtml?

In other news, there was another TD, but it is dissipating right now. There's also another hiccup off the coast of Africa that bears watching.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[tech]

While things are calm, I'll say "Thank you" for your continuing efforts and posts on tropical developments. Be safe!

[qrprat77]

Thanks for the Thanks!
It always helps me to get prepared if I can remember that there are every day reasons to be prepared!
Hurricanes are every year, unlike a lot of other whatifs we talk about round here, they gonna happen.
Speaking of which, TD8 is out there, but is fishing out to the Azores.
No worries for the US coast for it!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024328.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

There's a spot in the gulf I'm watching, but it looks more and more like a Mexican problem.
TD # 9 is here though, and it looks....
...interesting...

[qrprat77]

As an experiment, here's a look at the 5 day forecast for the storm:
TD#9 (Invest 94L)

[qrprat77]

TS ISAAC: Storm is Born...

This is one that will bear watching folks.
5 Day Forecast (can't post pic from here):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day?large#contents

Here's the fill Discussion:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212051
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION REPORTED 44-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1000 FT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AS WELL AS BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
WINDS ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. DESPITE THE UPGRADE...THE CYCLONE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NUDGED NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 275/15. ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT
FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS CONSISTENT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOW CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER ISAAC PASSES HISPANIOLA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL LIES NEAR THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BEFORE 72 HR...AND THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HR LIES NEAR THE
LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF WELL TO
THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. USERS ARE CAUTIONED THAT FIVE-DAY
TRACK ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 225 N MI.

ISAAC CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND IT MAY NOT YET HAVE FULLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING IT. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 12-24
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR FORECASTS OF
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE ALSO LESS
BULLISH. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR HAS AGAIN BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK SHOWING INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.6N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.6N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt In Oklahoma]

I'm no hurricane expert by any means but for the benifit of those who are new to this stuff reading this, it appears to be the time NOW to start on any last minute preps like extra meds or refills, keeping 3/4 tank of fuel instead of half, pulling out extra cash, loading items for movement that eat away time, looking at routes again etc. Worst case senario you "practiced" if it washes out but you only have 1/3 of the time it does. You sleep 8, you work 8 and that gives you 8 of which others things will eat at right? The storm moves 24 hrs a day and your 5 out.
Chime in resident experts

[qrprat77]

Yeah, I'll be upping my gasoline stocks, and reviewing my antenna drawdown plan. In this situation, I will lower my HF Wires, and use local coms on 2m. In an emergency I have antennas I can fast deploy either indoors or with a single support outdoors if things aren't too sporty. Will also be reviewing water stocking plan, and evac plan. If it looks like a definate Florida/Southeast hit, we will start a seperate thread for this storm discussion for an After Action Report/Live Update.
I will also post times/frequencies for those of us with Com gear.
Stay Tuned! :)