Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

Been busy round the house, still adjusting to the whole two kids in school thing...
Also, all them storms last week turn out to be non-issues this week. Nate's Gone, Katia's gone, only Maria remains, and unless you are in Bermuda, not a whole lot going on with that, PTL!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/113822.shtml?5day#contents

Maria's track.

Here's the big picture, you can see what's left of Nate over Mexico, and something interesting coming off the coast of Africa. It's nothing but a bit of wind right now, but that's how these things get started:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[qrprat77]

All of a sudden, it's OPHELIA!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Full discussion for the first advisory:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[qrprat77]

Ophelia's latest track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day?large#contents

Bears watching, east coast!
Portion of the discussion:

CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS
FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

[qrprat77]

Ophelia looks to be another fish storm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5day?large#contents

but we still gotta watch it.
If I had a little time and some finger mullet I'd head to Ponce Inlet for some Bluefish.

[1Admin]

Thanks for posting these updates, they ARE appreciated!

[qrprat77]

Thanks for the compliment, if anything, it keeps me paying attention :D

Track pretty much remains the same, but the discussion for this advisory is interesting.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 221432
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011
OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS
IT IS...IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. FROM A
DVORAK PERSPECTIVE...THE SYSTEM IS RATED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER...BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN
SAYING OTHERWISE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT.
AS OPHELIA APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE STORM IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE FURTHER. SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE STRONG SHEAR. AFTERWARDS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR THE STORM
WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND SOME OF THE OTHER
NUMERICAL MODELS.
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO TRACK THE CENTER BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 13.6N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 22.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[qrprat77]

Pay Attention to Philippe:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/100013.shtml?5day?large#contents

If anything will make me grab my HAARP flavored tin foil hat, it's the discussion on this storm:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292039
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING. PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS. THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

I've been watching this storm since it formed, and it has decided to take a most interesting track.
Surface temps are cooling, which means less strength, however the over all climate of the area is conductive for storm formation/development.
Let's keep our eyes on this puppy!

[qrprat77]

Philippe's gone fish storm on us, but watch this developping situation:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[qrprat77]

Keep your Eyes open Floridians!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

also:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

Eyes open, ears on!

[qrprat77]

Aforementioned spot is still there.
Acting strangely...
High winds tonite and tomorrow for CFL it looks like!

[qrprat77]

All of a sudden, there's Rina.
My wife spotted this one, I've been paying attention to the local forecast, and missed this one forming.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240832
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RINA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION WITH A COUPLE OF
ADJACENT SMALLER CLUSTERS...BUT NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS.
VERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. RINA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL BUT IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT LESSENING
OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND RADIOSONDE DATA
SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EXISTS
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM. GIVEN THESE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
USING A COMBINATION OF CENTER FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/5. A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WILL SOON BYPASS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA...A WEAK
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF RINA. THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT AT A
VERY SLOW RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH
ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GFDL AND HWRF. THESE LATTER
MODELS ARE PREDICTING RINA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE THAT WOULD
RESPOND TO THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
GIVEN THE PREDICTED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 16.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.0N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.4N 83.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

Here's the 5 day track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/114535.shtml?5day?large#contents

HEADS UP!

[qrprat77]

Rina's a hurricane now:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

The track is interesting, show's it's not being steered a whole lot.

The full discussion is disturbingly short:

000
WTNT43 KNHC 241821
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS AROUND 65 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING RINA THE 6TH
HURRICANE OF SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK WAS
REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1800Z 17.1N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 83.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 84.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

Keep yer eyes open!

[qrprat77]

Rina's shifted North, Track in the 3-5 and strength is becoming Uncertain:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204535.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Rina's trackin' strange guys:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY...OR 280/4. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 3 TO 4 DAYS...A LARGE
500 MB TROUGH MOVES TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF RINA WERE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3 OR SO...AND THEREFORE REMAIN A DEEP-LAYER
VORTEX...IT WOULD LIKELY ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GFS TRACK. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE RINA WILL BE LOCATED BY THE WEEKEND.

This certainly is a tricky late season storm.
weather guessers don't know if it's going to dilly dally, or follow a track up the peninsula!
Those of us in FL need to keep the heads up!

[tech]

Indeed...this is one that bears carefully watching until it disperses.