Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

We have ourselves a Tropical Storm Katia folks!
here's the map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/100013.shtml?5day?large#contents

Highlights of the Discussion:

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON
THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.

Still a long way out, but something we need to be watching.

Oh, and here's a bit of hurricane humor:
http://xkcd.com/944/

[qrprat77]

Turning Our Attention Toward Katia

Katia Morning Update, the Highlights!

A COUPLE OF ISSUES HAVE APPEARED REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
FIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA SHOW DRY AIR NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CORE OF
KATIA. THIS HAS NOT YET AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST 36 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INTENSIFICATION
COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST IF THE DRY AIR REACHES THE CENTER.
SECOND...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
NEAR KATIA FROM 72-120 HR. THE GFS...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING TO THE POINT
WHERE THE STORM REMAINS IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
KATIA TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR DURING THAT TIME.

Remember this storm may be a ways out, but we've dealt with a recent storm that's brought rain to much of the east coast. in my AO, there's call for more moisture on the ground, and while this is welcome, it can make the situation dangerous. Ground can take only so much moisture!

[qrprat77]

Ok, folks at the 2pm EDT warning time, we have a large mass of wet weather hangin' out between the Caribbean, the Yucatan, and the Gulf of Mexico,
it's causin' me clouds right now, and could turn into something more:
mugshot of the system:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[qrprat77]

Here's the 5pm discussion for Katia:

KATIA IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STATUS. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE CENTER. THE STORM ALSO
HAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT
55 KT...BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODESTLY WARM WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE OF KATIA WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND
DISPLACE THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IF THAT
OCCURS...KATIA WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 4 OR 5.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

Picture data:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Map got an update at 8:00 PM EDT y'all,
that disturbance in the gulf is warming up!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

There usta be a way of seeing sea surface temperatures. I'll have to poke around NOAA for the chart. It would be very interesting to see what's out there right now, loop current, eddy current, and gulfstream temp wise.
here's the discussion:

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

[1Admin]

Muchas Gracias for keeping up with this stuff. It IS appreciated!! Well done!

[tech]

Yup...the critter in the Gulf is looking to become quite a rainmaker. Biggest thing is the short leadtime and not knowing the actual position of the center- if there even is one at this time.

Again, we appreciate your reports in these matters.

[qrprat77]

No prob folks.
Katia is a hurricane!

Here's the long discussion:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010248
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE MIDDLE OF AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND THERE IS A LARGE CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THE BEGINNINGS OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
EYE IS STILL A BIT THIN. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY. KATIA IS THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 2-3 DAYS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A
BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
KATIA WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ON THE BASIS OF RECENT
ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.6N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.3N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.4N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.5N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.5N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 24.0N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Link to map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024712.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Havent found the sst graphic yet, but check out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al12/loop_5W.shtml

kinda trippy eh?

[qrprat77]

Gulf disturbance is kickin' up storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Some discussion from the 5am EDT notice on Katia:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/17. KATIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N55W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N60W... AND A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N71W. THESE FEATURES HAVE CREATED A SIZABLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST KATIA TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS. THE GFDL... UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THEN THEREAFTER LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

[Matt In Oklahoma]

Gulf disturbance is kickin' up storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Some discussion from the 5am EDT notice on Katia:

It could be the only hope for some of them wildfires

[WiseOwl]

I know its very bad to say this but I start my training working with an insurance adjuster...(I know, when I was a kid this is what I wanted to grow up to be) but disasters, c'mon down, its your time on the Price is Right!

We leave for VA tomorrow and it should be a couple of months work.

And lets get some rain on Texas and Okiehomie....I will do a rain dance for yall....

[Grand58742]

Looks like Katia is aiming for north Florida and Georgia if it stays on it's current track. Hope the East Coast gets lucky and it veers north into the Atlantic instead.

And Wiseowl, make it two weeks of steady rains and not torrential downpours. I doubt the ground could handle a serious rain right now without flash flooding.

But that being said, we can't be picky and any water falling from the sky would be welcomed.

[qrprat77]

TD #13

TD 13! HEADS UP LA and MS!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 012342
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0000Z 26.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

Discussion about TD 13 and Katia will be seperated, look to the title of the individual post.

My thoughts,
Read the whole discussion, boring as it may seem. TD13 is poised to be a
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT! This rain will be occurring in an already
saturated flood plain.
Heads up, boots on!

[qrprat77]

TS Katia

Katia has been downgraded to a tropical storm, and is being sheared.

here's the map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day?large#contents

the shearing should be over in 24 to 36 hours, once the shearing ends it's expected to intensify in earnest.

Steering currents and the bermuda high can help us or hurt us here folks!