Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

Lee is gone, so it's just back to Katia now!
Shapin' up to be one heck of a fish storm!

Here's a sample from the discussion:

THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS ABOUT 310/10 KT...AND KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NEARLY STRAIGHT TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
FAIRLY SHARP RE-CURVATURE IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS AROUND DAY
3...AND THEY ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE
CENTER ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS
WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS STILL GREATER-THAN-NORMAL
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF
AGREEMENT ON WHEN KATIA WILL BE SCOOPED UP BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SPED
UP A BIT AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...SO THE UNCERTAINTY HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEW
FORECAST IS A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 96-HOUR POINT TOWARD
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

And some maps:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203615.shtml?5day?large#contents

[ComputerGuy]

TS Lee is giving us much needed rain. So far 3.5 inches

[qrprat77]

Glad to hear you needed the rain ComputerGuy!
Even giving us some too.

Katia:
All indications are for it to be a fish storm!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083314.shtml?5day?large#contents

yay!
Should produce some beach erosion though.

I also give you the national map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

for two more areas of concern, a %70 chance of development for a spot off the coast of Africa.
and a %20 chance in the gulf, between Yucatan and Mexico.

[qrprat77]

TD 14 is Here!

Here's the full discussion:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 062035
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING
TREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...
FOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS
IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.8N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.9N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.0N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Storm track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203515.shtml?5day?large#contents

Now this one is still way out there folks, it's going to be a long ride, I fear for the rest of the season!

[qrprat77]

Check the Map!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's one of the best overviews of the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean areas, and right now, it ain't purdy.
Or it is purdy :D

[qrprat77]

Katia

Katia is rapidly becoming more an issue with our Irish/UK bretheren:
Discussion excerpt:

KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON TRACK WITH A MOTION OF 310/9 KT. THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL HIGH IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD A DELAY IN PICKING UP THE HURRICANE BY THE FAST MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ALSO BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION...ENDING UP ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING AT THE 96- AND 120-HOUR POINTS AS ALL THE MODELS HAVE
KATIA ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES...AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS REQUIRED AT THOSE TIMES.

THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD OF KATIA SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE
COULD BE AFFECTED BY SOME SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING KATIA BECOMING
ENTANGLED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 96 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS
THEREFORE FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC FORCING TO MAINTAIN IT AS A POWERFUL
HURRICANE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

Once she gets to the westerlies, it goes out of our scope pretty much. Looks like Bermuda's going to get a close shave though.

Track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204614.shtml?5day?large#contents

Tropical storm force winds probability map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204614.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

[qrprat77]

TD 14

Mernin'
Still a TD, here's why:

DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
AGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. NORMALLY WE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS LOCATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT CALL FOR MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THE REASONS FOR THIS ARE
NOT CLEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS ONE OF FEW MODELS TO DO SO. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
QUITE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST
IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...MODELS. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.

System is moving pretty fast too:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084114.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Hurrican Katia

Katia is dying the slow death of a storm moving north in latitude:

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KATIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING AND
DRY AIR APPEARS TO WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION...THE LATTER GIVING THE CYCLONE A SOMEWHAT HOLLOW
APPEARANCE. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE HURRICANE...AS EVIDENCED BY CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS AND
CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE LOWER...AND A REASONABLE BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KT. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
BEGAN 24-36 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INTERRUPTED...WITH EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING AN OUTER EYEWALL AT LARGE RADIUS THAT WAS
NOT CONTRACTING MUCH. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
SHEAR...SUGGESTS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY ONLY A
SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS KATIA REMAINS OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. AFTER 72 HOURS...KATIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ALONG A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
TRANSITION TO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LOWERED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

5 day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083815.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

And then there Were 3...

The Picture:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The Situation:
Katia is getting ready to make it's jaunt to the NE and go out of scope.

Maria is brand new and looking to turn into a fish storm, I'll keep an eye out on it though.

Nate is looking to bring that rain to Drought/fire ravaged TX!

More details after the 03:00 UTC update (11pm EDT)

[qrprat77]

TS Nate

Maps are almost useless for this storm right now. It's just not moving enough, here's the discussion:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080250
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
IN EITHER THE POSITION OR THE ORGANIZATION OF NATE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM
RETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A SHIP REPORTED 40 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT
0000 UTC....AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 090/2...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER WILL CAUSE LARGER
CHANGES IN POSITION THAN THE ACTUAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT TIME...RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD
CAUSE NATE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS NATE TURNING WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A
LOT OF NORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS A MAJOR OUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF NATE REMAINING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

NATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO
THIS LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM UNDERLYING WATERS BY FORECASTING
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NATE WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IF THE
STORM INGESTS IT...AND THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH WIND
SHEAR NATE MIGHT ENCOUNTER...WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.3N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.1N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 92.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 23.0N 94.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.5N 95.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 23.5N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[qrprat77]

TS Maria

TS Maria is still an unknown quantity, here's the track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day?large#contents

Here's a bit o' the discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A FAST 275/20. MARIA IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE STORM MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. FROM 24-72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD APPROACH A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HOURS AS
MARIA APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
WHILE THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERLY GFDL/ECMWF
AND THE MORE EASTERLY GFS/NOGAPS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT
TIME. THE NEW TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MARIA MAY FIND A DECREASED SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE STORM MAKES THIS UNCERTAIN. ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.

[qrprat77]

Hurricane Katia - It's still out there.

Tropical storm force Wind probability graph:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/030121.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

Discussion:

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATIA IS
AN ASYMMETRIC HURRICANE. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INNER-MOST CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS
PATTERN IS THE RESULT OF MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION. NOAA BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT
90 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER OF KATIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM
1-MINUTE WIND OF 58 KT WITH A GUST TO 72 KT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT KATIA MAY HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE...I PREFER TO KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KT GIVEN THE
BUOY OBSERVATION. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KATIA
BECOMING A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

KATIA IS NOW BEGINNING THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN AS IT MOVES
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE UNITED STATES. A PRONOUNCED INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
EXTRATROPICAL FORECAST POINTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

[qrprat77]

TS Maria

And I quote:

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. MARIA CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...MARIA PERHAPS NO LONGER HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE CYCLONE TO DETERMINE IF THAT IS THE CASE. NOAA BUOY
41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND
THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO MARIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE FACT THAT THE LGEM...ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS
DO NOT STRENGTHEN MARIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT
SHOW ANY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE
ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO QUICKLY ISSUE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS...IF NECESSARY.

This storm will bear further watching, 5 day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205944.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

TS Nate

Nate gains strength:

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

Still not much change in track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210158.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Hurricane Katia - Big and Nasty, Still!

Katia is still out there, Ireland and Britainnia need to look out!

RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL WEAKEN RATHER
SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN LARGE AND POWERFUL AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. INITIAL WIND RADII
ARE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE RECENT
ASCAT PASS.

Five day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/212153.shtml?5day?large#contents