Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

TD #13

Lucky thirteen is just sittin' and spinnin'. Not doing a whole lot of intensification, and the center is elongated. There's not a whole lot of steering happening, but that's supposed to change soon. Here's the highlights of the discsstion:

THE LARGE SIZE AND SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

So make sure your kit is high and dry!

[qrprat77]

TS Katia

I know that every storm is different, but each follows the same laws of physics. Katia is in a bad place and pattern for folks in southern FL.
remember this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Andrew_1992_track.png

Check out this loop of images showing the windfield of Katia and position:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al12/loop_R.shtml

and here's the 5 day forecast of Katia:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084713.shtml?5-daynl#contents

basically, we all better make sure we have our kit together. The mid atlantic ridge is supposed to collapse as a trough approaches over the weekend. this will keep Katia heading NNW.

After that, the high rebuilds in the WEST atlantic.
That's the bad news.

Here's the bad news in scientific format :D I'll make a couple of things bold that I think are important:

AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A TIMELY AMSR-E
MICROWAVE PASS AT 0533 UTC GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY AS KATIA ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH THAT TRACK GENERALLY CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THIS SOLUTION IS THE
UKMET MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND KEEPS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THAT
MODEL HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD BIAS IN EARLIER SIMILAR SITUATIONS...SO
THE NHC FORECAST WILL DISREGARD THAT SOLUTION AND LEAN MORE CLOSELY
ON THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALL MODELS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD FORCE KATIA TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH AT DAY 5.

notice that this is still about 5 days away. That's years in hurricane terms, so we won't make any undo guestimates.

[qrprat77]

TD #13 03:00 UTC

Highlights of the Discussion w/ wind forcast:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AND ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT
DRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE
CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS
ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 27.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 27.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 28.2N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 29.7N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 29.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 31.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical storm wind probability map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145613.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Hurricane Katia 03:00 UTC

Back to hurricane strength!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 021454
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011
THE CONVECTIVE DEPICTION OF KATIA HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AS BOTH
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AND CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN EYE MAY BE FORMING. BECAUSE OF THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE...BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAME
IN AT A 4.0...OR 65 KT...AS DID A 1053Z CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. THUS KATIA HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12
KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF SPEED.
ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
HAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY...
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS LESS THE UKMET MODEL.
DESPITE BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN...KATIA FACES A RELATIVELY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KT
SUGGESTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMICS MAY NOT BE IDEAL WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INCREASES ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...MAY BE SPURIOUS...AS THE STRONGER VORTEX FROM
THE GFS MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THESE VALUES RATHER THAN THE
ENVIRONMENT. THUS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW AT DAYS
THREE TO FIVE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A
SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF BLEND BUT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 52.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 56.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 21.7N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

Keep your eye on this map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day?large#contents

[ablesolutions]

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[Grand58742]

Weird about TS Lee, only moving north at 2 MPH. That's gonna dump a lot of rain on the Gulf Coast. Reminds me of TS Alberto in 94, went inland, stalled and dumped massive amounts of water on N Florida and S Bama.

[qrprat77]

TS Lee (TD13)

Weird about TS Lee, only moving north at 2 MPH. That's gonna dump a lot of rain on the Gulf Coast. Reminds me of TS Alberto in 94, went inland, stalled and dumped massive amounts of water on N Florida and S Bama.

yep! a real rain maker, going to be around a while. we've been getting the cirrus outflow clouds here. here's your current (10:00 UTC) wind forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204713.shtml?tswind120#contents

[qrprat77]

Hurrican Katia 10:00 UTC

Ok, Katia is still showing a northwestward trend:

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...AS IT
IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE. KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED.
ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH HAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION
DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS EXCEPT THE
UKMET MODEL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER KATIA WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES.

Five day map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

TS LEE 09:00 UTC

Hey guys, as of 4:00 CDT, Lee was busy making it rain, I bet tech could chime into conditions on the ground.


Here's some tidbits from the discussion:

GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ISSUES WITH SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE NOT YET
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...LEE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL TO THE THE MARSHY NATURE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
WATER. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEE IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...A SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

and the purdy lookin' tropical storm wind probability chart:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085214.shtml?tswind120#contents

[qrprat77]

Hurr Katia 09:00 UTC

Katia struggles, sometimes showing sub hurricane strength, but the things causing the shear are weakening, and the dry air is going away too.

It is oddly showing a stronger path northward.

here's part of the discussion:

ATIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THIS GENERAL TRACK GOING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTING
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS/GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

and here's the five day cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085813.shtml?5day?large#contents

[qrprat77]

TS Katia 21:00 UTC

Back down to TS strength, but still ornery, and she's got 'er eye on them Carolinas it looks like:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205114.shtml?5day?large#contents

Here's the full discussion:

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE NOW
T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5/3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRUCTURE
NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT KATIA HAS
WEAKENED SOME AND AGAIN IS A TROPICAL STORM. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
THIS FACT WILL ONLY BE MORE APPARENT THAN USUAL SINCE THE INTENSITY
WOULD BE OSCILLATING AROUND THE 65-KT HURRICANE THRESHOLD.

IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND
THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
NORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT
TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD
RATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER
SHIFT.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO COMPLEX. KATIA HAS
NOT BEEN STRENGTHENING AS ANTICIPATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND KATIA BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER
THAT TIME DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN U.S.
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT
STRENGTHEN KATIA BEYOND CATEGORY 1 STATUS WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF
STILL SHOW THE STORM REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.9N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.7N 58.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 23.1N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 24.3N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 66.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 31.5N 70.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[qrprat77]

TS Lee 21:00 UTC

As of 15:00 UTC today, .8 inches of rain had fallen on the ancestral home of this Bayou Rat.

I imagine significantly more has fallen since then. There were also TS force winds reported.
here's a nice map of the current wind field of Lee:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204714.shtml?radii#contents

Here's a portion of the discussion:

THE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY APPEAR TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE MAIN VORTEX NOW NEAR
MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA. BASED ON THIS POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/03 KT. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS...EXCLUDING THE HWRF MODEL...ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW AND ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
BLOCKING HIGH...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS LEE AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED ONCE AGAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NUDGE LEE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
BEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVOLVES INTO A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE ECMWF TRACK.

SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LEE COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHEN CLOUD TOPS ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL IN THE LARGE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR LEE TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OR WHERE
THE CENTER OF LEE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL SINCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

[qrprat77]

UPDATE: Lee has given "Possum Hollow" (extreme So East Rapides Parish) 2.3" of rain so far.

[qrprat77]

Hurrican Katia 15:00UTC

Hey folks this is the 16:00 UTC update.
My head hurts, but I had a good time at church :D
here's the map, track is starting to look like a hockey stick:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/100013.shtml?5day?large#contents

Sample of the discussion:

KATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT.
ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A
LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 4-5 DAYS...WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE
EAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS
THE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W.
DESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...ADT
ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE
CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
THE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA...BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE
BENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
JETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND KATIA COULD STILL
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

[qrprat77]

TS Lee 15:00 UTC

The windfield of Lee is shifting east:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145114.shtml?radii#contents

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE
FINALLY MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING
AROUND 11Z ABOUT 10 NMI SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. RECENT DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE
CONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 65-72 KT FROM 8000-12000 FT IN
35-45 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF AT LEAST 60 KT. ALTHOUGH
THESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 50-55 KT...THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THESE NEW CONVECTIVE
BANDS SUGGESTS THAT ANY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE VERY
TRANSIENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED
ON WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42040...BUT THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM THE
STANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER
DOPPLER VELOCITIES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.