Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

Well, folks, for now Emily has dissapated, let's hope she stays dead!

[qrprat77]

Emily looks like she's finally too far north and going further north,
but wait, there's more!

Off in the far Atlantic, and just off the FL shore, there's weather a brewing:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

check it out!

[sewbeit221]

Emily looks like she's finally too far north and going further north,
but wait, there's more!

Off in the far Atlantic, and just off the FL shore, there's weather a brewing:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

check it out!

Yeah this is the time of year they start coming off the African coast like a train one car after another!! Now through Labor day! Geesh! But hey...I'M Ready!!

[tech]

Hey qrprat...just wanted to say thanks for this thread. During severe wx outbreaks, I operate the ham radios at NWS LIX, which is the backup site for the NHC...gotta love an informed public!

[qrprat77]

Hey qrprat...just wanted to say thanks for this thread. During severe wx outbreaks, I operate the ham radios at NWS LIX, which is the backup site for the NHC...gotta love an informed public!

No Prob tech, we bayou rats stick together!

[qrprat77]

Check the 5 day track on Irene Folks!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/110013.shtml?5day?large#contents

Discussion:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 202317
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A
MAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT
45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE
IRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO
IDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM
AST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2300Z 14.9N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[qrprat77]

Discussion:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 212045
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE
AROUND 0000 UTC. WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND
INTERACTION. IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED
HERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF
THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15. IRENE
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS
WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND
DAY 3. SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO
HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt In Oklahoma]

based on what on tonights news and what I saw you girls better tape down your skirts!!

[qrprat77]

based on what on tonights news and what I saw you girls better tape down your skirts!!

Yep!
Maybe not as bad though for FL, really uncertain!

PAY ATTENTION FOLKS!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220259
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL
VELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
993 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK
BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT
DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.
WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.9N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 20.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
20H 27/0000Z 30.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[qrprat77]

hmmm, this storm is getting curiouser and curiouser!
We have us a hurricane folks!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[1Admin]

Will the little NOAA charts load on the site here?

Call me eleventeen, but I can visualize the threat better with the little "cone of impact" charts. LOL

[qrprat77]

They have a widget for putting on your site that will give the cone, I think 3 day by default.
I tried inserting the cone, but got a "remote file is too large" error.

[qrprat77]

MAJOR Shift EAST!
Link to the cone!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

there boss... that's as close as on the board as I can get it without doin' serious nerd stuff....
:)

Short status,
Storms going Hugo on us folks! that means HEADS UP South Carolina!

[qrprat77]

Got to post the five oclock discussion folks:
:cool:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[qrprat77]

Irene is shaping up to be a bigun!
SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE IRENE MOVED OFF THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO YIELDS A LONG TERM MOTION OF 295/10 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE 23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

Here's Lowdown's map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083214.shtml?5-daynl#contents