Hurricane Season 2013!

[qrprat77]

The official thread for answering that question: "What the heck are the tropics doin'?"
as in the past, storm updates will be given here. If a storm looks like it will hit land, and cause trouble, we will spin off another thread to track progress/aftermath as it wrecks havoc accross the nation.
There is suspected to be some activity, and indeed this season, there have already been two named storms. These storms generally do not affect the US because of the way the currents carry the storms.
on the atlantic side we see this:


and while the one spot of low activity is not expected to develop into any sort of a tropical system, it is supposed to cause tropical moisture to fall on the Florida peninsula this week.
To be continued!

[tarheelsman71]

they are already hitting, but in Oklahoma!

[Grand58742]

they are already hitting, but in Oklahoma!

Ain't that the truth! For real, the last storm we had looked a lot like Tropical Storm Alberto I went through in 94.

[qrprat77]

I am glad you Okies are ok for now. In the mean time, check this out: Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THECIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THISSYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL ORSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLYNORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARELIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATANPENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYSAND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[qrprat77]

Oh, hey, and I see the graphic updated in my first post! Hmmm. means you can reference that graphic without reposting it.

[qrprat77]

Ham Radio and Hurricanes.

The national weather service runs a radio station out of the national hurricane center, WX4NHC. This station is used to collect live reports from hams facing hurricanes, and other severe weather. I've relayed a message to them once during a snow storm in Atlanta, here's an article they published recently about how the man behind the NHC's ham radio activity: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201306_julio_ripoll.php

[qrprat77]

Already?

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Kinda surprised this one hasn't petered out into nothing, but the satellite pics over the last few days have shown a system that is gradually getting better organized. Keep the ol' weather eye to the gulf! This is where early season storms usually happen.

[qrprat77]

TS ANDREA IS HERE< HEADING FOR FLAGEORGABAMA

HEre's the link to the storm, but not the change in pic #1: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...large#contents See the link for details, I can't cut and paste the discussion right now, so be on your gaurd! Looks to be a soaking storm. YAHOO!

[qrprat77]

TS Andrea, Discussion 08:00 UTC

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060850
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

made some stuff bold, and highlighted it because we ned to be aware, this is a soaker storm that will make us all want to hunkerdown just remember to keep coms handy in case an odd ball tornado pops up, especially when it starts moving faster.

[Grand58742]

Interesting path it's taking.

[qrprat77]

Interesting path it's taking.

soaking us to the bone right now.
I figured it was going to be an eastern seaboard rain event and it looks like it. Rain projected to be highest around St Mary's GA home of the eastern strategic sub fleet.

[qrprat77]

What's this you say?

Nothing right now, but a chance, so here it is!

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OFORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATIONAT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ALITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANDTHIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT20 TO 25 MPH.

[qrprat77]

TS Chantal

DiAnd now we have Chantal, 5 day forecast has it approaching the FL Peninsula. We will monitor this one until it doesn't pose a threat. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...daynl#contents fot the projections.
Discussion:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL032013 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH.

LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION... 280/23...IS CONTINUING. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 10.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[qrprat77]

Track of Chantal



This image should auto update with each change in forecast.

[Mannlicher]

it's not just the wind. Rain, and flooding are becoming more important around here. Just since July 1st, we have had close to 18 inches of rain here in Gainesville. My yard is flooded, the ground never dries out.
When it rains, there is a torrent of water flowing across my yard to the street. Gutters, pipes, ditches all help, but if we got a real soaker hurricane, I am afraid my house would just float away. :(