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Hurricane Season 2013!

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  • Hurricane Season 2013!

    The official thread for answering that question: "What the heck are the tropics doin'?"
    as in the past, storm updates will be given here. If a storm looks like it will hit land, and cause trouble, we will spin off another thread to track progress/aftermath as it wrecks havoc accross the nation.
    There is suspected to be some activity, and indeed this season, there have already been two named storms. These storms generally do not affect the US because of the way the currents carry the storms.
    on the atlantic side we see this:


    and while the one spot of low activity is not expected to develop into any sort of a tropical system, it is supposed to cause tropical moisture to fall on the Florida peninsula this week.
    To be continued!
    ---------------
    HV FN ES 73!
    http://skattagun.blogspot.com
    "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
    --Spock
    ---------------

  • #2
    they are already hitting, but in Oklahoma!

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by tarheelsman71 View Post
      they are already hitting, but in Oklahoma!
      Ain't that the truth! For real, the last storm we had looked a lot like Tropical Storm Alberto I went through in 94.
      Experience is a cruel teacher, gives the exam first and then the lesson.

      Comment


      • #4
        I am glad you Okies are ok for now. In the mean time, check this out: Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THECIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THISSYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL ORSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLYNORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARELIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATANPENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYSAND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
        ---------------
        HV FN ES 73!
        http://skattagun.blogspot.com
        "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
        --Spock
        ---------------

        Comment


        • #5
          Oh, hey, and I see the graphic updated in my first post! Hmmm. means you can reference that graphic without reposting it.
          ---------------
          HV FN ES 73!
          http://skattagun.blogspot.com
          "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
          --Spock
          ---------------

          Comment


          • #6
            Ham Radio and Hurricanes.

            The national weather service runs a radio station out of the national hurricane center, WX4NHC. This station is used to collect live reports from hams facing hurricanes, and other severe weather. I've relayed a message to them once during a snow storm in Atlanta, here's an article they published recently about how the man behind the NHC's ham radio activity: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201306_julio_ripoll.php
            ---------------
            HV FN ES 73!
            http://skattagun.blogspot.com
            "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
            --Spock
            ---------------

            Comment


            • #7
              Already?

              1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
              PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
              GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
              THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
              OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
              CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
              DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
              COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
              FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
              CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
              DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
              AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
              AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
              HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
              WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
              THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
              FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
              SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
              SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
              Kinda surprised this one hasn't petered out into nothing, but the satellite pics over the last few days have shown a system that is gradually getting better organized. Keep the ol' weather eye to the gulf! This is where early season storms usually happen.
              ---------------
              HV FN ES 73!
              http://skattagun.blogspot.com
              "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
              --Spock
              ---------------

              Comment


              • #8
                TS ANDREA IS HERE< HEADING FOR FLAGEORGABAMA

                HEre's the link to the storm, but not the change in pic #1: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...large#contents See the link for details, I can't cut and paste the discussion right now, so be on your gaurd! Looks to be a soaking storm. YAHOO!
                ---------------
                HV FN ES 73!
                http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                --Spock
                ---------------

                Comment


                • #9
                  TS Andrea, Discussion 08:00 UTC

                  000
                  WTNT41 KNHC 060850
                  TCDAT1

                  TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
                  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
                  400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

                  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
                  HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER
                  . THE PLANE REPORTED
                  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
                  WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
                  REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
                  EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
                  INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
                  ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

                  ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
                  HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
                  INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
                  CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
                  WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
                  COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.


                  FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
                  TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
                  STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
                  BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
                  TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
                  MODELS.

                  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
                  PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
                  FLORIDA PENINSULA
                  AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
                  UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
                  COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
                  PENINSULA.




                  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

                  INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
                  12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
                  24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
                  36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
                  48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
                  72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
                  96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
                  120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

                  $$
                  FORECASTER AVILA
                  made some stuff bold, and highlighted it because we ned to be aware, this is a soaker storm that will make us all want to hunkerdown just remember to keep coms handy in case an odd ball tornado pops up, especially when it starts moving faster.
                  ---------------
                  HV FN ES 73!
                  http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                  "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                  --Spock
                  ---------------

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Interesting path it's taking.
                    Experience is a cruel teacher, gives the exam first and then the lesson.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Grand58742 View Post
                      Interesting path it's taking.
                      soaking us to the bone right now.
                      I figured it was going to be an eastern seaboard rain event and it looks like it. Rain projected to be highest around St Mary's GA home of the eastern strategic sub fleet.
                      ---------------
                      HV FN ES 73!
                      http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                      "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                      --Spock
                      ---------------

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        What's this you say?

                        Nothing right now, but a chance, so here it is!
                        1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OFORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATIONAT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ALITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANDTHIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT20 TO 25 MPH.
                        ---------------
                        HV FN ES 73!
                        http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                        "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                        --Spock
                        ---------------

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          TS Chantal

                          DiAnd now we have Chantal, 5 day forecast has it approaching the FL Peninsula. We will monitor this one until it doesn't pose a threat. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...daynl#contents fot the projections.
                          Discussion:
                          000
                          WTNT43 KNHC 080836
                          TCDAT3
                          TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
                          DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
                          NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
                          AL032013 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013

                          CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH.

                          LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION... 280/23...IS CONTINUING. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

                          FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

                          INIT 08/0900Z 10.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
                          12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
                          24H 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
                          36H 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
                          48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
                          72H 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
                          96H 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
                          120H 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

                          $$
                          FORECASTER PASCH
                          ---------------
                          HV FN ES 73!
                          http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                          "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                          --Spock
                          ---------------

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Track of Chantal



                            This image should auto update with each change in forecast.
                            ---------------
                            HV FN ES 73!
                            http://skattagun.blogspot.com
                            "3. you cannot count on your adversary sucking. to do so invites disaster."
                            --Spock
                            ---------------

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              it's not just the wind. Rain, and flooding are becoming more important around here. Just since July 1st, we have had close to 18 inches of rain here in Gainesville. My yard is flooded, the ground never dries out.
                              When it rains, there is a torrent of water flowing across my yard to the street. Gutters, pipes, ditches all help, but if we got a real soaker hurricane, I am afraid my house would just float away. :(

                              Comment

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