Hurricane Season 2013!

[qrprat77]

Tropical Storm Dorian

having trouble posting the track, here's the discussion:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 241431
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT
1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
ABOUT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...
DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C
SSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF
WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER
AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[qrprat77]

TS Dorian Track

[qrprat77]

Highlghts from the Dorian Discussion:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

[qrprat77]

Dorian not entirely Gone

While the storm has dissipated, there is still some activity (rain t storms) associated w what once was Dorian:

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN... IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[qrprat77]

watching two places...

Getting toward the busy time of year for hurricanes, and I want to remind everyone that things can happen quick.
I've bee watching a spot in the Southwest Caribbean for a couple of days, and it's showing signs it could develop over the next coupla days. Also, a new system sprung up in the east just off Africa. It's also showing a high probablility for development.
Just an FYI.

[Grand58742]

Seems like a quiet season so far.

I just jinxed you folks didn't I? :p

[qrprat77]

meh, it would be weird to NOT be getting storms this time of year.

[qrprat77]

Tropical Storm Erin

New Storm in the Eastern Atlantic:

[qrprat77]

Coupla Fish storms, then BADABOOM!

activity all over the atlantic and Gulf, not a bit of which will affect us in the next 5 days...
slow season, but it is there!
Humberto is our first Hurricane.

[qrprat77]

activity all over the atlantic and Gulf, not a bit of which will affect us in the next 5 days...
slow season, but it is there!
Humberto is our first Hurricane.

Notice what the pic looks like now. HEre's the comment that goes along with that 80% chance of development area:

1. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO. WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED...GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...LESS CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS MORNING.

This will like affect oil drilling/processing in the Gulf. keep that in mind when reviewing fuel stocks this week.

[qrprat77]

We officially have ourselves a Karen, and it looks like its going be brings the rain to Flageorgibama

[Templar]

OMG!!! Time to evacuate New Orleans!!! There goes the news cycle for this weekend, the farging drama queens are already mustering at the Stupor Dome...

I hope they give out MREs when the EBT cards don't work...

Cynical regards,
Templar

[Matt In Oklahoma]

OMG!!! Time to evacuate New Orleans!!! There goes the news cycle for this weekend, the farging drama queens are already mustering at the Stupor Dome...

I hope they give out MREs when the EBT cards don't work...

Cynical regards,
Templar

No can do cause no one is working LOL

[tech]

Just have 'em float down the river!:p

NWS forecast office is expecting to activate ham radio operators in support of emergency operations early Saturday morning (at this time, and subject to change.) There goes my weekend!

[Not_Yet_Prepped]

No can do cause no one is working LOL

How is that different than when they at work?