Hurricane Season 2012: It's Here!

[qrprat77]

STS Beryl Update (05:00 EDT)

Yo folks, Looks like the FL/GA border is going to get wet. Hawkeye? RPD? you guys stay high and dry!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[qrprat77]

TROPICAL STORM BERYL!

yay, it's finally Tropical!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?3day?large#contents

Three day track picture.
Take a look at the other graphics, TS force winds are on shore

Full bulletin:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 272044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS
ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY. BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 30.0N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 30.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 30.2N 82.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 30.6N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 31.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[thedreamers]

The funny thing about this storm is that it moved backwards instead of moving north like they do. Seems alittle wierd to me, makes you wonder. Its not going to do big damage to us, but I filled my gas cans back up today.(I usually do it about every 10mos) But the people at the gas station kept looking at me like I had three heads for doing it. I just keep thinking to myself dont come knocking on my door cause you have no power.

[Hawkeye]

Starting to come in on us a bit now. Eye should go pretty much directly over me around midnight. Still have power/internet for the moment. Things should start going downhill pretty fast over the next 2 hours.

[qrprat77]

The funny thing about this storm is that it moved backwards instead of moving north like they do. Seems alittle wierd to me, makes you wonder. Its not going to do big damage to us, but I filled my gas cans back up today.(I usually do it about every 10mos) But the people at the gas station kept looking at me like I had three heads for doing it. I just keep thinking to myself dont come knocking on my door cause you have no power.

Hey brother, that sounds like a good idea to me!
Storms like this are governed largely by upper level pressure systems. High pressure systems move winds clockwise around the center, lows, counter clockwise. Right now Beryl is on the eastern edge of a high pressure system, that is over the east.
Reference this map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

Remember that the biggest thing with this storm is that it's going to be a lot of rain:
reference this map for current rainfall total estimates:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jax&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

LD, RPD, Hawkeye and Diz, ya'll wet yet?

[qrprat77]

Starting to come in on us a bit now. Eye should go pretty much directly over me around midnight. Still have power/internet for the moment. Things should start going downhill pretty fast over the next 2 hours.

Thanks for checking in, do you need a HF radio monitoring a certain frequency?

[qrprat77]

Beryl Over Land

Beryl is over land, and they are saying it will remain at TS strength for the next 12 hours.
Here's an excerpt from the bulletin:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280846
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.
BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

[thedreamers]

We just got back from seeing my dad in the ICU up in jacksonville. Jacksonville has taken a few hit from the storm,some places are a mess. Also talked to my kids in Callahan they had some problems going on. Saw a bunch of FPL and tree truck heading into jax to help out.

[Chatelaine]

the dreamers.
I'm very sorry to hear that your dad is ill, I will add him to our prayer list and hope all goes well. Must have been stressful considering the weather woes.

It is my understanding that western Nassau county around Callahan and south experienced some straight line winds, with predictable results.

All Memorial Day events were cancelled around Jacksonville, but a few diehards ;raises hand; managed to take a position during a brief dry spell and pay homage to the fallen.

We experienced good stiff breezes and some heavy rain overnight. Lost power overnight, but we barely notice those things. Brief showers and light breezes today, power came back on before 10:00am. Back to our regular schedules now.

Chatelaine

[qrprat77]

TD Beryl 05:00 EDT 5/29

Thanks for the input guys! I always love hearing 'live action' reports as it were. Here's the latest Advisory on TD Beryl, I've bolded some stuff:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290846
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

BERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR
PRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
AS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER
AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING
THE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR AN
ACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF.
BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN
OVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84
HOURS IN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER
WATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
CALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 30.9N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 31.5N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0600Z 32.4N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 33.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/0600Z 35.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The "Cone Map" as it stands:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084840.shtml?3day#contents

Anyone else with any "After Action Reports?"

[WiseOwl]

I would like to thank Beryl for the 20 mins of rain yesterday. Nothing like a tease to get me in the mood :)

[qrprat77]

The Official Beginning of Hurricane Season

June 1 marked the beginning of the official hurricane season. We've had two storms already though.
Here's a link to the National Hurricane Center's official prediction:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120524_atlantic_hurricane_season.html

It's a good read, here's some of the first bit:


[QUOTE]
Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA

[Kathy D]

I'll be checking here often. Living in SE Louisiana makes you keep an eye on the tropics. Thanks!

[qrprat77]

Tropical Storm Chris, other News.

Only a fish storm, but it is number three. Also some stuff that bears watching out Cuba way:

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192055
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
AND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 35-KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/7. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW SHARP THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
CHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN
36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE
SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 39.3N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 39.2N 54.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 39.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.9N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 43.3N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 45.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Info about other disturbance:

2. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

This will be the only update on Chris unless it gets interesting.
The other system will be watched, might make things interesting over the next week weather wise in my AO.

[qrprat77]

Large disturbance over Cuba update:

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

It's making weather interesting in the sunshine state right now folks!