Hurricane Season 2011

[qrprat77]

Hey guys, instead of posting on each separate storm system, I'm going to update this one thread. Threat or no threat to the coast, I will post info on storms, with links to NOAA, NHC stuff only. I find I trust my government to do weather well because, hey, my expectations for weather guessers are low from the start and the gov needs to fly planes.

Current situation:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

summarized:
Bret is a depression now, Cindy is well north and east to do anything more than maybe cause some swells.

There is some interesting activities in an area that has a history of producing bad storms that hit places, including the US: east of the Antilles! right now there is a 20% chance of storm development in the next 48 hrs, and conditions are expected to slowly improve as the storm tracks WEST.

[qrprat77]

you can click the link above at any time to get the latest updates, the latest of which shows a developing storm system over the Antilles. Looks like it's staying south of the steering currents and that always makes things more interesting.

%30 of developing in the next 48hrs, and conditions are such that it is expected to develop slowly.
This is as of 02:00 EDT 7/23

I'm going to bed!

[qrprat77]

whelp folks after nearly fading away, the same tropical disturbance mentioned above now has an 80% chance of becoming something.
Here's the NOAA Schpeil:
"
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
"
The NHC P-3 was practising touch and gos yesterday at Lakeland Linder, as a side note.

[qrprat77]

Ok folks! New storm probable!
Heads up TX and LA!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

This is as of 1:22PM EDT:
"
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
"

[qrprat77]

TS DON Is here!

Houston, you have a problem.
Corpus too,
Both cities are 40-50% hit,
Main track is almost right between the two.

[Matt In Oklahoma]

Ok folks! New storm probable!
Heads up TX and LA!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

This is as of 1:22PM EDT:
"
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
"

sweeeeeeetttt cause it's supposed to give us some rain too! don't want no one damaged but we sure need that moisture.

[qrprat77]

sweeeeeeetttt cause it's supposed to give us some rain too! don't want no one damaged but we sure need that moisture.

If the storm stays on track, I bet that's exactly what you will get, a looooooot of moisture.

[qrprat77]

TX folks!
keep yer powder dry!
Literally!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100013.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

There is a 12% chance it will develop into a Hurricane.

[qrprat77]

Don's still shootin' fer Corpus!
30% chance of development from a strong low in the ICTZ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[qrprat77]

Don Ashore, and back to depression!
Time to watch this place:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

50% chance of development in the next 48 hrs.

[qrprat77]

Got another spot, out in the Altantic, East of the Antilles.
click the toplink!

[qrprat77]

WE are expecting a new storm today. Watch the Antilles folks!

[qrprat77]

Trop storm emily is there!
5 day range could bring it here!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/100013.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

[qrprat77]

Emily is shifting track Westward a little bit folks, this gonna be close.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145014.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Note, on the 5am Trop storm force winds probability chart, Emily was showing that it was going to turn more up the middle of hispanola than now. Now it's directing more toward the Haitian side.
If it tracks much further west before heading north, it could stay out over open water.
Watch the bermuda high folks!
A weak High is good for the FL coast in this scenario! Looks like the Bahamas are going to get hammered though. A gentle hammer, strengthening is forecasted to be light.

[qrprat77]

Ok folks, this is the discussion from NOAA/NHC:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032057
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA