Doomsday preppers show

[sewbeit221]

I see that Nat Geo is re running the Doomsday Prepper again show this Saturday at 8PM I am looking forward to watching it. Has any one seen it? How was it?

[tech]

I saw a bit of it...all I could think of is these idiots are showing their preps for all to steal.

The title shows that Nat Geo still has an attitude towards the preparedness community.

[Lowdown3]

Their is a thread around from last month or so that discusses it, has links to watch it on youtube, etc.

[scientia]

The title didn't match

Not one person in that show was a doomsday prepper; at best they were severe disaster preppers. I didn't see anyone in that show who could last more than about twelve months without civilzation and the "experts" were just as clueless. Is that seriously the plan that people here are following?

[scientia]

BTW, listening to people on the show talk about the "2012 coronal mass ejection" was particularly amusing. It's kind of like listening to people talk with great sincerity about big foot, or the loch ness monster, or being abducted by aliens. I'm kind of curious how I missed the total collapse of civilization when we were struck by a very large coronal mass ejection in 2010. Also, exactly why is 2012 special? There's no reason that I'm aware of unless you are one of people who believes the nonsense about he mayan calendar. Coronal mass ejections happen all the time; not just in 2012. Here are some nice pictures from the one that occured in 2011: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/su...711-blast.html

Actually, if any of the people on the show had any common sense they could have just read the NASA website which has an entire section debunking the pseudo-science claims of meteors, solar ejections, etc. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

Hyper-inflation is another joke threat. People who think this will happen have no understanding of the US monetary system (and apparently don't know history). If someone does claim to know history and believes that hyperinflation is a threat then they would have to explain the lack of the collapse of civilization in germany following WWI when the inflation was so bad that people were paid twice a day because the value of the money dropped from morning to afternoon.

Pandemic. Sorry but this one won't work either. The most serious epidemic the US has ever had was the Spanish Flu around the time of WWI. Every estimate I've seen for a repeat epidemic like this has been exagerated by a factor of at least 5. The country most at threat from an epidemic is China. I can only think of three population groups within the US that would be at great risk and these are fairly small groups: orthodox jews, fundamentalist mormons, and amish.

I'm not sure how many doomsday scenarios this leaves. Nuclear war is possible but this threat has declined by a factor of about 10 since the Reagan adminstration. A meteor striking near or in the US would be possible as would a mega volcanic eruption at yellowstone. Are these the scenarios people are planning for?

[Lowdown3]

Not one person in that show was a doomsday prepper; at best they were severe disaster preppers. I didn't see anyone in that show who could last more than about twelve months without civilzation and the "experts" were just as clueless. Is that seriously the plan that people here are following?

People "here" aren't "following any plan" regarding anything.

I'm not preparing for coronal ejections or supervolcanos.

The average person preparing likes to watch shows like that on a base level for one reason-

Everyone likes to KNOW they aren't the "only ones" out there. You used to hear this all the time at Preparedness Expos back in the 90's- "I'm just glad to know I'm not the only one."

It's lessened now with the net, forums like this, hundreds of survival sites, etc. But people like to "see" shows like that on TV. Some will think it's helping the movement or will help people wake up.

Is all the scenarios you mentioned are bogus Scientia, how about enlightening us as to why you are preparing? Thanks

[scientia]

Oh, you want to know my feelings. Well, as I mentioned in other threads the threat of a civilization destroying disaster is microscopic and not really worth putting any serious effort into. Let's start at the bottom.
The rational basis for emergency planning should be something that is useful; if it is all just work and time and money then it is going to reduce the quality of your life rather than improving it. I like camping so I have camping equipment and these are things that could be used in an emergency. In other words these supplies are things I might use anyway so they are no extra burden.

If you have a garden and do canning this could save you some money. In other words, if you actually use your canned food then that seems reasonable. You don't have to use it all of course because you may be trying to build up some surplus (and that is fine) but it would be crazy to do canning and stack everything on a shelf and use nothing. If you do that then there is no immediate benefit; it is just a burden. Dehydrated fruits, meats, and vegetables can be used in various ways. Again, you don't have to use all of them but if all you do is stockpile then that is pretty much a waste. Having solar panels or other alternative forms of electrical generation can be useful and these can also help in an emergency.

Basically, you start with something that is useful and has an immediate benefit. Then you add a few things for a possible emergency like a tornado, or flood, or hurricane, or power outtage, or snowstorm. These are things that can interrupt electricity, potable water supply, food, and medical attention. And when you are prepared for a possible emergency you can add a few extra things that might help with a longer term emergency.

Would I build a bunker and stockpile weapons and pallets of flour? Absolutely not because this would simply be a drain with almost zero benefit. Some people who engage in activities like these probably have a certain type of behavioral disorder. You can see similar disorders in people who do extreme couponing or who hoard things. I've watched shows where people were so happy that they saved money with coupons but they couldn't explain why they needed 500 boxes of cereal or 200 toothbrushes. I've seen people like this spend $15,000 on their couponing habit while insisting that it was beneficial because they theoretically saved money. This is actually not much different from people who are addicted to shopping and make the same claim when they get a good deal on something they have no use for.

If you are putting a lot of time and effort and money into preparedness because you think that civilization is going to collapse tomorrow then I would honestly suggest you find a good therapist. However, if you are putting a reasonable amount of resources into something that also has immediate value then I don't see a problem. There is nothing wrong with being prepared for a possible emergency; it's only a problem if it is more of an obsession. If preparedness planning is taking over your life then what kind of life do you have? However, some preparedness can make things much easier in the event of a real emergency. Does that make sense?

[scientia]

I have an emergency bag in my car. It only came with one thin blanket so I added one of the silver plastic blankets that reflect heat. These are very good because they don't cost much, they take up little space, but they work quite well. I have a camp shovel that I could use for digging if I got stuck.

I have camping supplies like tents, various cooking units, and bottled propane. I have first aid kits. I have a good fluorescent flashlight that lasts for many hours on one set of batteries. However, I also have some propane lanterns. An oil lamp or candles can also be good. If necessary I could purify water by filtering, boiling, or adding chlorine bleach. The electricity at my house goes off several times a year so I always have to have something handy to provide light. And, I need something to cook with when I go camping or sailing. I do have a porta-potti on my sailboat which could help if there were no water. I've thought about sailing to Hawaii at some point which is about two weeks out and three weeks back. Planning a trip like this is an interesting exercise because you have the same issues of lack of water and resources. In other words it's quite similar to emergency planning.

[1Admin]

While it's the COMMON MIS CONCEPTION that survivalists and preppers "obsess" about disasters, I've found only a few that are like that in the 2 and 1/2 decades I've been doing this.

You are about 90% of the way there in your thinking.

We live on about 20 acres about 2 hours from any major city or serious nuclear target, most wooded but about 4 acres in various forms of production- gardens, orchards, animal pastures and pens, ponds, etc. We have produced our own power since 1999. We don't have any debt- including house and land.

We live this way because

1. we want to live this way.
2. cause it's cheaper to live this way.
3. We live this way because it's going to make for a really affordable retirement one day not so far off.
4. We live this way because maybe just maybe something serious will happen.

We don't have "pallets of flour" cause flour doesn't store long term. I won't comment on quantities but if you knew, you would likely classify me in a bad light. But we store food not just for us, but for other family members and friends as well. We've also went the better part of a year with less than $400. income, so to me, the "all you need is a month of food" advice is utter stupidity not based at all on reality. Also, the rice we are rotating from the mid 90's is costing us about HALF of the current cost of it.

I know of no one that I've ever met online or of the thousands of like minded folks I've met over the years at shows, seminars, campouts, etc. that does it as an "obsession." To be honest, IMO, 95% of them don't take it serious enough.

Yes, "extreme couponing" and buying tons of stupid junk you don't need is really stupid IMO. All mentioning it does is gets another spambot to spam the board for the upteenth time with crap about couponing (they must cue in on where certain words are used and them spam accordingly).

We live our lives every day. We live in the country, we enjoy ourselves daily.

Don't buy into the media stereotype that everyone who puts up more than 3 cans of beanie weenies thinks the boogeyman is always around the corner and TS is always fixing to HTF....

[scientia]

My problem with the people on the show was that they seemed incredibly naiive about what they were doing. I have no idea where they got their information from but the bulk of it was wrong. Let's say that civilization really did collapse. How long would a wood gas powered truck work when any of hundreds of parts could break and you couldn't get replacements? The same would apply for a generator or high tech sensing devices or many other things that require civilization. In other words, it makes very little sense to me for someone to claim that they are planning for doomsday or a total collapse of civilization but everything they have is dependent on civilization.

The bunker mentality is particularly strange. You stockpile guns (lots and lots of guns) and food and other resources because you are certain that roving bands of people will come and attack you. Okay, that's fine. But then what do you do in a year or so when you need to plant a garden and a patch of grain or potatos? What do you do with livestock? How exactly do you hide these in a bunker? Some of the people on the show had a military mentality and didn't seem to be aware at all that this type of situation was completely impractical. A bunker scenario is practical for one year at best but will fail with 100% certainty over time.

Secondly, I didn't see anyone who knew anything about older technologies. I'm pretty familiar with technology from 1940 and 1860 and 1450 and 600 BC. Everyone on that show seemed pretty clueless on how technology works without modern manufacturing. So, their planning was actually a salvage and scavaging scenario without any real long term subsistence. I don't see the point of this. If you honestly believe that civilization might collapse and you claim that you are planning for this then shouldn't you have some way of subsisting for the next fifty years without relying on modern technology?

As far as I could tell, the Doomsday Preppers show was based on a lot of fear, a little bit of information, and a great deal of wasted effort. It seemed to be based more on obsession than common sense. It just amazes me how little information people seem to have to base their conclusions on. I'm quite familiar with these scenarios. If civilization really did collapse then the worst place to be would be Phoenix Arizona. The death toll there would likely be 95%. Los Angeles would be about 90%. New York City would be around 80%. Chicago would be a bit better off but could still see a death toll as high as 75%. Most other cities would have between 33% and 50% survival rate. There is actually quite a bit of land available for growing food. The big problem is that it is very labor intensive if you don't have a tractor. Most people would have to spend time gardening to grow vegetables (80 - 90% of the population). Civilization would revive within one generation. These things are pretty much guaranteed. However, again, the incidents that could occur that would cause civilization to collapse are extremely unlikely (less likely than, say, getting struck by lightening).

[scientia]

While it's the COMMON MIS CONCEPTION that survivalists and preppers "obsess" about disasters, I've found only a few that are like that in the 2 and 1/2 decades I've been doing this.

I wasn't talking about survivalists in general; I was referring to the people on the show. That's why I was asking if people here agreed or disagreed with the show.

You are about 90% of the way there in your thinking.

Well, 90% agreement isn't bad.

We don't have "pallets of flour" cause flour doesn't store long term.

Right and you have no good way to replace it. Potatos are much easier to replace.

I won't comment on quantities but if you knew, you would likely classify me in a bad light.

Not necessarily. Consider the scenario that someone has a reasonable stockpile of food and they lose their job. This would make it easier to get by until they find work. Again, this is something that could have immediate value.

"all you need is a month of food" advice is utter stupidity not based at all on reality.

As the above example shows, it would be good to have several months of food if you got laid off. I agree with this.

Also, the rice we are rotating from the mid 90's is costing us about HALF of the current cost of it.

Well, if you have rice from twenty years ago that would be more than I would be planning. However, rice and dried beans are both still a good value and easy to store. I was surprised that the local food bank didn't carry these as staples.

Don't buy into the media stereotype that everyone who puts up more than 3 cans of beanie weenies thinks the boogeyman is always around the corner and TS is always fixing to HTF....

Well, see, that's what I thought. The people in the show were more unusual and the mentality more extreme.

[Fanderal]

Scientia:

Forgive me if this sounds snarky, I really don't mean it that way, but after reading your post I find myself a bit confused.
I have to ask "WHY, exactly do you prep?" since in seems you don't believe in anything really wrong being able to or likely to happen.

I will take issue with you on possible economic collapse however, for a couple of reasons;

a) ANY economy based on a government spending ANYTHING over 100% of income WILL sooner or later go bust. It's just not possible to spend more than you make forever. AT some point you will HAVE to balance accounts, and when that happens the dislocations in peoples day to day lives will for a time be very catastrophic. (the more so for the more advanced economies)

b) Germany was able to solve it's currency problems with a 1 TRILLION TO 1 exchange rate for new semi-hard currency based on bonds indexed to the price of gold. Who do you think bought most of the bonds,,,,,,foreign investors MAYBE...So they basically mortgaged the country to foreigners, kind of like we have been doing for the last 40 or 50 years. (which is why several foreign nations can stop our economy in it's tracks at any time by just massively unloading US T-bills)

c) Another example is Zimbabwe, who wound up using both the USD, and the South African Rand. (see Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe)

In both of these cases (and all cases that I know of) the troubled economy had some OUTSIDE resource. In our case today, we have already done what Germany did (only we haven't index the dollar to T-bills directly, YET), and in a case like Zimbabwe, there really is NO more stable outside currency to switch to reliably, and even if there is can you imagine what that would do to us.....The loss of Reserve currency status will be devastating, to the US economy.

Just My 2 Cents
Fanderal


ETA: I can also second what 1Admin said, We do it not on an obssive basis, or out of fear, but rather because we like living in the country, we like producing as much of our daily needs as we can, we like living off grid, most of all, because when my city dwelling co-workers come in late to work because of a power failure, I can look at them and say: "OH the Powers out?!! Sorry to hear that."

:-)
Fanderal

[1Admin]

Well said Fanderal- +1

Scientia-

Your right, I have "no way" to replace any wheat in storage-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPst5FaAAtU&feature=channel_video_title

:) Not being combative just saying, don't assume... ;) While I'm probably lean more towards what you consider off the charts as far as how we prep (my "therapist" committed suicide after my first season LOL Just kidding), don't think that it's just a matter of buying up a bunch of stuff for everyone. For some it is, without a doubt.

HERE, we encourage people to be more than just hoarders. Honestly, a lot of the new crop (post 2005) "preppers" do little more than that, just buy stuff and think that alone is going to get them through. Few put any REAL effort into truly developing skill sets that will keep them long term. Probably because of the short term mindset you mentioned.

It's a balance however. I won't just give up my AE system or night vision because 10 years into the PAW my batteries will run out, that would be silly. Can we do without both items? Sure, but until they finally die out/fail, etc. they are going to be useful.

If someone has 5,000 rounds for their rifle, should they just say screw it and use a bow and arrow because SOME DAY they won't be able to make/acquire more ammo?

[scientia]

Forgive me if this sounds snarky, I really don't mean it that way, but after reading your post I find myself a bit confused.
I have to ask "WHY, exactly do you prep?" since in seems you don't believe in anything really wrong being able to or likely to happen.

Well, as I've already said, I like to camp and I like to sail so having things that can be used in emergencies is not really a burden. My father grew up in a house without running water or electricty so I know what this entails.

a) ANY economy based on a government spending ANYTHING over 100% of income WILL sooner or later go bust. It's just not possible to spend more than you make forever. AT some point you will HAVE to balance accounts, and when that happens the dislocations in peoples day to day lives will for a time be very catastrophic. (the more so for the more advanced economies)

Actually, this isn't really true. I'm pretty familiar with economies from about 400 BC to the present. They aren't really as fragile as you think. You can abuse them a lot and they will still function. To understand a truly mangled economy you would need to study ones like the former Soviet Union, China after the cultural revolution, and the Roman Empire. You could also study things like European farming during the Younger Dryas, distilling in the US after the whiskey rebellion or the change in the cotton industry after slavery was ended. It kind of puzzles me that some people think that our economy is facing something entirely unprecedented.

Our current economy is correcting itself but not as quickly as it could because small businesses cannot get loans. In a recession, almost all of the new jobs are created by small businesses. Measures to help small businesses grow have been blocked in the Senate and have been entirely absent since the change in the House of Representatives. So, growth is limited to about 1.5%. Keep in mind that this is not with help; this is growth even with measures to suppress it.

b) Germany was able to solve it's currency problems with a 1 TRILLION TO 1 exchange rate for new semi-hard currency based on bonds indexed to the price of gold. Who do you think bought most of the bonds,,,,,,foreign investors MAYBE...So they basically mortgaged the country to foreigners, kind of like we have been doing for the last 40 or 50 years. (which is why several foreign nations can stop our economy in it's tracks at any time by just massively unloading US T-bills)

I'm familiar with at least half a dozen countries that in recent times were worse off than germany and they did not collapse. The notion that our economy will stop if T-Bills are unloaded is laughable at best. Would it be a financial shock? Yes, it would and a bad shock. But the magnitude of this shock is less than the stock market crash of 1929. There would be adjustments made and the economy would begin moving again. I can guarantee that.

Another example is Zimbabwe, who wound up using both the USD, and the South African Rand.

Through much of the early history in the US foreign currencies were commonly used. This is nothing to panic over. Zimbabwe shows again that even with great damage an economy can adjust and keep moving.

there really is NO more stable outside currency to switch to reliably

I'll give you an example of how bad some of the hysteria is. I've now heard legions of armchair experts suggest that buying gold is a good hedge against inflation and because the US dollar might be shaky. Of course, what they conveniently leave out is that during the financial collapse of 2007 investors stopped buying gold but kept buying US dollars. So, US currency is actually more valued than gold. Secondly, they kind of leave out the fact that gold today is at a record high so you are almost guaranteed to lose money on it. In other words, gold is only a good investment for people who sell gold.

and even if there is can you imagine what that would do to us.....The loss of Reserve currency status will be devastating, to the US economy.

Again, the magnitude would be less than the stock market collapse in 1929. Bad, yes. As bad as some suggest, no.


I'm really puzzled about something. Exactly where did the notion come from that the US economy and financial apparatus are some kind of house of cards where a gentle breeze might blow it down? This notion stopped being reality some time between the War of 1812 and the Civil War. During the War of 1812 it was difficult to raise money for warships (the USS Constitution is a surviving example btw). However, by 1860 this was no longer an issue. In other words, the US had trouble creating even a small navy during the War of 1812 however by the Civil war Britain itself could not have threatened the federal government.

The economy in the Confederacy moved pretty well during the war even with bad currency, crippling labor and material shortages, the loss of 90% of its primary source of income from cotton, and a blockade. Seriously, how does someone explain the Confederate economy and then think that it is somehow worse today? Economies do not just collapse.

[scientia]

Your right, I have "no way" to replace any wheat in storage-

Why would you think I was saying anything about you? My comment was about the program on Nat Geo which showed a family buying two pallets of flour. For most people, potatos would be easier to grow than wheat. In fact, a combination of white and sweet would work out well because sweet potatos are nitrogen fixing. Cereal crop farming without modern fertilizer, planters, and combines is not a simple affair. However, if you know your crop rotations, can use a scythe, know how to thresh and mill by hand then that will work.

just saying, don't assume

Don't assume that the people on the show were clueless? I think that was pretty obvious.

HERE, we encourage people to be more than just hoarders.[/B] Honestly, a lot of the new crop (post 2005) "preppers" do little more than that, just buy stuff and think that alone is going to get them through. Few put any REAL effort into truly developing skill sets that will keep them long term. Probably because of the short term mindset you mentioned.

Do you actually encourage people to understand the economy or history or how societies function? Most of what I hear from other places is a kind of me versus the world or a kind of Noah's Ark attitude. You really can't get much more unrealistic than that.

It's a balance however. I won't just give up my AE system or night vision because 10 years into the PAW my batteries will run out, that would be silly. Can we do without both items? Sure, but until they finally die out/fail, etc. they are going to be useful.

Ah, so you are one of the group with the military mentality. I guess that's okay but as I said it will fail with 100% certainty within a few years no matter how many guns you have.

If someone has 5,000 rounds for their rifle, should they just say screw it and use a bow and arrow because SOME DAY they won't be able to make/acquire more ammo?

My suggestion to you would be to study military battles prior to WWI. I understand the basis is of your rationale. You have stuff; you assume others might want to take it; so you have guns to stop them. Sounds very simple. Unfortunately it isn't.