Where will the intruders come from?

[Cimarron]

*I used the term intruder for a broader term of "any body that is not invited". This does not include other 'groups' or neighbors, that you share a OPSEC with, that might be on patrol and dropping by.

So here's my thought. In planning for SHTF OPSEC we would want a secured retreat and plan on having things locked down. My thoughts are, we won't be able to tell where from, and how many intruders there will be...can we?

So, my question is like this. Is there any way a person could guesstimate an encounter, or several encounters even? folks that are not planning for anything to happen might have a destination in mind and not reach it and only make it to your place. They might have only wanted to escape the city and just headed to the country and made it to your place. Or, they were just on some random route not following any direction and ...wound up at your place..and of course there are those that are heading to your place because they think people in the country has food and stuff...

I would think geography and population of your area would make some difference on the outcome. Also how hidden, discreet, your retreat is. "in the middle of nowhere" sounds pretty good. :)

but do any of you have an idea of how and how many?

[Matt In Oklahoma]

Hoardes of Zombies and I will refer to my rangecards and use high cap mags.
I also have looked my place over both in daylight and darkness and asked where would I break in and where are the blind spots to hide. Zombies like roads and sneaky zombies like low ground such as creeks for approach. Jaw traps, mean dogs and unfriendly bushes with thorns make good dead zone equalizers. (dead zones are any area you cannot have line of sight on IE: shoot such as ditches, holes or low spots)

[Bull]

Right on Matt -- lets be neighbors. LOL

I figure to plan for the worst. Use your imagination to figure out the scenario that would terrify you most in terms of how many, and where and how they attack. Then figure out how you would defend. Like Matt said though, figure out how you would attack and take over your place. You and any number of others, and think about what would make it more difficult for you. Then make those difficulties a reality so that it really sucks for anyone to try to get you. People that just come along, I don't know. It all depends on the situation and the people. Maybe they can live in the stables and pull the plows with your animals and the politicians you capture for the same use.

[arcangel911]

Excellent question......

I feel that the further off the "road" you are, the better off you are. People who do not know woods and tracking, will more than likely stick to streets and areas they know. I feel this way due to adventure is a rare quality of humanity these days. Also, who has a map or maps anymore? (I know I do, but most do not). But this also requires some stealth and guile on your part. How many people know where you live can be a good thing and a bad thing. Because if they know your "stocks", they may just walk to your door. So careful who let on to your plans and place.

Being off the grid will help also, since there is no telephone lines and or items that are visibly out there for people to assume where a house is. I do not have a mailbox currently and use a PMB (Private Mailbox) as my address. Really don't want a neon sign up saying "here I am", either. But you also have to watch for things like smoke form your fires and or other signals that indicate someone is home "lights" or "candle light".

As for how and how many.... too many variables. (I agree with James Rawles in that...) You can expect that the closer you are to a major city you are, the more will come if they know where you are. I will expect though that they will be young-ish and travel in packs mainly. People who have disabilities, obesity or diseases may try but will not make it to far. Also, weather I feel will play into it severely. Winter- most people will not go outside unless they have too or if they are snowed in like the current east coast? Summer- All the people who live in deserts (heat stroke) ? (Las Vegas is literally out in the middle of nowhere............)

Terrain will also play in as well. Most people do not have a pair of good walking shoes or boots. And I am sure you all know, ankle or a foot injury can seriously slow you either down or make it so you are not going anywhere anytime soon. Some will use their brains and stick close to rivers and places of green. Of course, if I see someone using my water source as their personal outhouse, well I am not going into details there ;)

As for variables; EMP, natural disaster, Nuclear, Biological, Financial.... the future= Only God Knows. I am truly hoping for Financial, due to the fact that yes there will be chaos and death, but not as much as all out anarchy as I predict with the others. Ever seen someone who hasn't showered in a week? Or had their morning coffee for several days? I have and it isn't pretty. ;)

[Tofu]

In reality the intruders will come from your friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors. Unless you plan on living in a co-op of some sort where you have enough people to stand watch, you are going to wear yourself out on 2 hours of sleep a night. This whole GI-Joe/Red Dawn crap is just that. Unless you can hunker down in a hole for three years, you are going to have to count on others for mutual survival.

[Matt In Oklahoma]

In reality the intruders will come from your friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors. Unless you plan on living in a co-op of some sort where you have enough people to stand watch, you are going to wear yourself out on 2 hours of sleep a night. This whole GI-Joe/Red Dawn crap is just that. Unless you can hunker down in a hole for three years, you are going to have to count on others for mutual survival.

alot of truth to this!

[crossbow]

friends and family will be easy to handle, the intruders to worry about will come with some sort of LEO suits on just like New Orleans, they will be the last to lose their jobs and probably still have a way to get around with the same attitude they have now. The world owes me a living and i'm going to take it with my gun,badge in the name of the law..

[Lowdown3]

In reality the intruders will come from your friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors. Unless you plan on living in a co-op of some sort where you have enough people to stand watch, you are going to wear yourself out on 2 hours of sleep a night. This whole GI-Joe/Red Dawn crap is just that. Unless you can hunker down in a hole for three years, you are going to have to count on others for mutual survival.

Then that begs the question- who do you "count on?"

[Matt In Oklahoma]

Then that begs the question- who do you "count on?"

I think thats something you have brought up before isn't it? The time is now to figure that out and get those who are willing onboard and not wait till PAW. In speaking with several folks offline the concensus is they are short on shooters and skilled folks in the home camp. In my case I have alot of "friends" who will show up afterwards but none who are willing to prepare now. If you have that security of already having people onboard consider yourself lucky and make sure you take care of that relationship. I am always continuing the search
@ Crossbow I really think that LE is not all like that. There have been plenty of other disasters in America with no issues.
N.O. was an issue before Katrina and known for it's dirty cops and politcal corruption. There are other cities that are rapidly approaching the same right now, Chicago comes to mind along with others. If something happens in those places yes, it will be the same because they are already there and doing wrong. N.O. didn't change when the hurricane hit the mechanisms were already in place for evil to spread rapidly in a total decline of society. There are plenty of good Law Enforcement and Soldiers and other pieces of the "institution" that will restore things if needed as shown in N.O. Were they perfect, no, hardly, plenty of mistakes were made, but it was restored by true Americans.

[crossbow]

@ Crossbow I really think that LE is not all like that. There have been plenty of other disasters in America with no issues. N.O. was an issue before Katrina and known for it's dirty cops and politcal corruption. There are other cities that are rapidly approaching the same right now, Chicago comes to mind along with others. If something happens in those places yes, it will be the same because they are already there and doing wrong. N.O. didn't change when the hurricane hit the mechanisms were already in place for evil to spread rapidly in a total decline of society. There are plenty of good Law Enforcement and Soldiers and other pieces of the "institution" that will restore things if needed as shown in N.O. Were they perfect, no, hardly, plenty of mistakes were made, but it was restored by true Americans.

Disasters, but no SHTF situations where there is a complete breakdown. I haven't been pulled over in probably 50 years but know plenty of people who have and every situation with cops today turns out negative, unlike the pre 9/11 cops who were public servents that were there to help the public and not pay off the national debt by finding something wrong with everyone they stop to get a high five from their buddy and a high fine for the person they stopped.A civilian could talk to a Pre 9/11 cop and explain why he done what he did,, today there is no talking.
here is a real good article

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/almost-everything-is-a-crime-in-america-now-14-of-the-most-ridiculous-things-that-americans-are-being-arrested-for

[arcangel911]

I will err in the side of caution on this. As with all things, there is good and bad. LEO are not immune from this and no one usually is. Your link brings up a good point about silly laws, it is not the officer fault, but he is enforcing the laws that have been deemed worthy by the local officals or mayor of that area. I cannot fault someone who is doing their job, as silly as those laws are. I work with many LEO and I would say that 70% are fairly decent folk. However, the other 30 we watch out for.

That being said, most of these cops will stay in their home zone for a while. They know the area, weapons and have police head quarters- been in a few myself (just visiting or inspections, not staying.. ;) )and all are very, very well armed with food and ammo (usually in impound or evidence (but don't think they will not break in to get weapons as well though)). Also the LEO coming to you will not have what you have at your abode. You have more food, more ammo and more everything. They only have maybe a BOB or BOV, and or what they can carry. You have the advantage.

As for me and how it goes, intruders and visitors will be treated fairly and with caution at first, everyone makes mistakes and perhaps they got lost. If they have valuable skills or we need extra hands on deck, something make be worked out, having two or three LEO on your side is not a bad thing. Especially if some of your group doesn't show up or doesn't make it out for a while. Many hands can make light work, and as others wiser than I have stated, "Standing watch" on a few hours of sleep is going to drain you and your party.

If I have charity, then it will be given with some directions to the nearest town or what not. However, if they are seeking more than charity, then use of force may be required. Remember if a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to know about it... did it really happen?

But you do bring up a good point as well with the whole LEO coming to you. Because if they are at your door.... who is guarding the prisoners?

Crossbow- are you looking at this from a Martial law standpoint?

[Tofu]

x-bow a complete breakdown in society the likelyhood of the local PD wasting their time coming to your house to harass you is very low. That is of course you don't live in an area like Matt was talking about, Chicago, Detroit, LA, etc. If you're that concerned you need to bug out now and find a place where, in the event of crisis, the local law enforcement is counting on you to lend them a hand. Not harass the good folks who are just trying to protect their stuff and families.

My brother is a police officer, I know many of his co-workers, and they know me. I would recomend getting to know some of these folks, and you will be surprised to actually how decent they are. They are still hard working individuals, with a thankless job. The pay sucks and the hours are worse, but they absolutely love doing what they do. Take the time to take some community policing classes, do a ride along, heck become an auxiliary officer. The real demons are the one's in Washington, DC that are taking us down this road, not the local cop who like you has a wife and kids at home.

btw, did you notice most of those arrested are in Michigan?

[crossbow]

Crossbow- are you looking at this from a Martial law standpoint?

No, I'm just looking at it from what I see and read it newspapers from around the country, here's one that i read in a NY paper last week, after a while you lose all respect for people wearing badges and unions. this is not only up in NY, it's going on all over, people losing their jobs and government,state, county workers getting raises


ALBANY, N.Y. — Cuomo has blocked $20,000-plus raises for 28 top brass in the state police that were approved in the waning days of Gov. David Paterson’s administration.

Cuomo said Wednesday he was “shocked” to learn of the raises that were approved as some 900 state workers were facing year-end layoffs and the state confronts an upcoming $10 billion deficit.
ALBANY, N.Y. — Cuomo has blocked $20,000-plus raises for 28 top brass in the state police that were approved in the waning days of Gov. David Paterson’s administration.

State police officials had requested the raises so the top brass would earn more than unionized majors, who now get up to $170,756 annually under their contract. In a letter to the state Budget Division, Assistant Deputy Police Superintendent Terence O’Mara had said that because the state police is a paramilitary organization, the “the salary inequality” needed to be fixed to support the chain of command.

Cuomo’s decision was first reported Friday by the New York Post.

State police spokesman Lt. Glenn Miner said this was an action by the governor’s office, and any comment should come from there.

The executive raises would have boosted staff inspectors to $173,756 yearly and the first deputy superintendent to $182,756. Assistant deputy and deputy superintendents’ pay would have ranged between those two figures.

Are these LEO worried about the 900 state workers that got laid off or the over taxed tax payers who have to come up with the money? can you imagins 182,756 per yr and they don't even have to go out on the streets,don't punch a time clock, have a car furnished with all the perks.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2011/01/gov_andrew_cuomo_halts_20000_r.html

[arcangel911]

Crossbow- I am unfamiliar with NY's problems in such regard. However, I do know that most of the current on the line firefighters in NY start out around 28,000.... so I am seeing where you are coming from.

As for money, no one really knows what will happen first. It maybe worth something today, but tomorrow.... eh, GOK. Tomorrow toilet paper maybe worth more. (Got to make sure I stock up on toilet paper and phone books.... ;) )

Honestly, I have stopped reading newspapers and watching most TV. The only news I see constantly is "bad news". Occasionally, they aire something that is a positive thing, but for the most part I find it boring and silly news. I care what goes on in the world, but does it always have to be negative?

But I don't think LEO are going to be showing up in droves at my door. They will have enough to worry about. In truth, I worry about all the "other kinds" of people showing up at my door.

Tofu- please check Michigan off my list of places to live and or visit. ;)

[Tofu]

Tofu- please check Michigan off my list of places to live and or visit. ;)

Its too bad, Michigan is really a beautiful state. Most of the people that I have met from Michigan have been very cool.