Where will the intruders come from?

[Matt In Oklahoma]

@ crossbow LOL no there is no such thing as SHTF or knowledge of what will happen, we were discussing disatsers, specifically N.O..
If there werent good folks, LEOs, soldiers etc. out there we would already be in SHTF. Again plenty of mistakes are made but in every instance in your unknown authored article someone sent them and in most, someone (civilians as is being said) complained to start the whole ball rolling. I think that those laws were made by "civilians" which far outnumber LEOs who are hired by "civilians" to enforce the laws "civilians" make.

50 yrs, you have had no contact, doesn't sound like there is much of an issue, seems like you make a good case that if you arent doing anything you probably won't even talk with them much less just be randomly arrested or forced to pay the "National debt".

I do agree that they could be a threat as you stated but no more than anyone else. OCPD police chief was in the sunday paper today whining about being undergunned today after one of their officers got shot up so they are not in that good a shape with weapons and being feared.

[Cimarron]

Any intruder, is just that, an intruder. Until you prove them non hostile and know their intention to you and your property, you HAVE to consider them suspect, regardless of what they are wearing, or what they were before TEOTWAWKI.

More to my question was in the chance of encounters. I think Arcangel touched on this the best with this.

"As for how and how many.... too many variables. (I agree with James Rawles in that...) You can expect that the closer you are to a major city you are, the more will come if they know where you are"

I had an idea of taking a map and locating the biggest Metropolis near you. Taking a "bulls eye" (think target/archery practice) place the center dot over the entire city. This is where everything bad that can happen...probably will.

Next, take the expanding concentric rings of the bulls eye generating away from the city, and let's say they represent ten miles between each ring with five rings total. The percentages of the chance of an encounter would be higher closer to the city depending on if that individual was driving or afoot. I guess you could add rings and keep subtracting your percentage chance but let's face it there is always going to be some chance so I don't think that would be very effective.

[mosinfan]

exactly right.a friend of mine and i had a similar discussion last night.the whole deal was how many people do invite to your click?
children asside the more you invite the more you have to feed.so with that is there a set number?

you will need watchs,people who have knowledge,people who can handle a firearm....but in the same thought all those mouths are going to have to have food.
its requires thought for sure.however the other thought would be stay or run.again both weigh out pretty good but both have there downsides also.

[Cimarron]

exactly right.a friend of mine and i had a similar discussion last night.the whole deal was how many people do invite to your click?
children asside the more you invite the more you have to feed.so with that is there a set number?

you will need watchs,people who have knowledge,people who can handle a firearm....but in the same thought all those mouths are going to have to have food.
its requires thought for sure.however the other thought would be stay or run.again both weigh out pretty good but both have there downsides also.

Same here. I was having this discussion with my wife. If a encounter is hostile and is going poorly for our side we may have to bug out from the retreat.
She said something like "Why would you leave, Your in your house and safe?"
My reply was "Not if they're shootin thru the walls and windows and trying to burn the place down"

I agree, it takes a lot of thought and some preparation to know when to stay or go.

[biathlon]

Well, ya got 2 options. #1, bug out now(very much preferrde) or stay and fight off the cannibals and looters. Yer gonna be overwhelmed real quick by all the refugees from(insert your favoriet city here)and will have little or no option. Git outa there now. Good luck.

[Bull]

Cops are just like any other group of people. Some good and some bad. If TSHTF completely, then you see them showing up, I would be suspicious. Why are they there? Your neighbors complained about your generator being too loud and they want to enforce a noise ordinance? Doubtful. I've done L.E., but in the Coast Guard. There were decent folks with common sense, and guys who would try to nail you to the wall for jumping a boats wake on your jet sky. They would go out of the way to be pricks. I've been pulled over plenty and dealt with both kinds. I have L.E. friends and hear their stories. I think you have to weigh out the situation and be cautious of everything. In the appropriate time I could see them showing up, but don't think a crooked cop isn't fully aware of how to use his position to further his bad intentions. You have to be extra cautious at some point because it makes no sense at that point for a cop to be coming there. You have to use your street sense, common sense, intuition, or whatever. If you needed a ride tomorrow because you broke down, some people might not put of the vibe you would be comfortable with, and you would have to follow your gut. Anyway, you would like to think of the cops and military who serve out of a sense of honor and an obligation to do good and all that. Those folks are the type that are more likely to be thinking like we do in the first place and be upstanding people, with their own values and reasonable judgement. Then you have ones who are zombies, and they are likely to follow orders without thinking, and do what they're told, and it doesn't matter how stupid the law or situation may be. Then you have ones that are crooked. You have to worry about the last two.
Family, friends, neighbors, and lost, wandering other types of decent folks are not so bad. They can be driven or desperate enough to be dangerous but they at least have something in their head you could try to appeal to with reason, and you should be able to pick up on some kind of bad vibe, or that something isn't right if they start to get to that point. Everyone else is a threat, and you have to be the leader, especially if they are at your place. It should be obvious to whoever you allow to be there and enjoy your good graces, that you are the designated leader, and decider of behavior and standards. They, you could hope, will fall in line and begin to prepare for the others, who you should assume will eventually come. "I didn't come to you. You came to me. I obviously have thought about this stuff more than you and am more ready to deal with it than you. So listen to me, pull together, and we will make it. More people will come and they won't be the type to want to talk about this like we are. Lets get ready." Something like that.
I think that the manner things go bad, will make threats of one kind or the other more likely. Bad cops are more likely to come with political unrest and such over the growing police state, and an economic collapse. Something like NBC, EMP, or major natural disaster type stuff and everybody is going to want to pull together, or cling together to survive, and cops and everyone else won't matter to much. There is a difference in having things build up to a disastrous point so that bad folks can build up the malice to attempt horrible things because of their status, and a clear cut situation of survival.
Thrown into a survival situation, good people will hesitate to do bad things, even though they are getting closer from desperation, and bad people will not have the time to hatch intricate plans so quickly. By the time they do, something should strike you as odd about what they claim to be doing in your area.
And even in your own "safe haven," you should have a plan and means of escape. If it gets bad enough I would rather be alive with nothing, fleeing from my place, than dead, trying to defend it beyond my ability. Even getting out like that can be defending it. You could have plans for the enemy to think you are giving up, running away, and they are winning, you get out to the spots you have already pre-staged and pre-sighted then reverse the attack/defend role, with the new advantage.

[Bearman202]

Bull, I like the Pac-man approach here. Make them think you're leaving, then come back with an obvious advantage. Works for me. :-)

[Mannlicher]

I think that there are way too many variables for any reasonable answer. Things will be what they will be. Be prepared.

[Urban Survivalist]

After I got my book The Urban Survivalist Handbook published I was contacted by a friend in the local Sheriff's office and was able to do some consulting. That has stemmed into a business and now I have a consulting business with 50% of my clients being LEO's and EMS personnel. I have talk to every LEO I have worked with and everyone has told me that if it comes down to SHFT they are going to be with their family not kicking in doors taking citizen's guns or things like that. Here in Arizona the majority of the population is very pro gun and that includes LEO's. Here in AZ LEO's see what’s going on and are getting prepared to do one of two things bug in or bug out with prepared food and water storage and proper security measures. As with everyone, your job doesn't mean @#%* when you are trying to keep your family alive. 99% of LEO's are good people just like me and you. There are bad cops but it’s a 1% thing. If you get to know a LEO you just might find out that if you make a friend you have a tactical partner if the SHTF and they might get you out of a ticket one day too.

[slingshot]

Cops are merely a cross-section of our society. As our society gets more corrupt, you'll find more corrupt cops. As long as police agencies recruit from the human race, they'll inadvertantly hire some dipsticks. However, we still have a lot of good people in our society and that is reflected in the fact that a lot of good people are cops. I put in 25 years in 3 different agencies. I've known officers that were lay and ordained preachers on their own time. I've known cops that were fired, jailed, and even one that was put on death row for raping & murdering women. Just a cross-section of our society is all they are. If I lived in New Orleans (one of the most corrupt societies/police agencies in America,) I would be highly suspicious of any cop rolling up during a SHTF situation (hide the women & children and circle the wagons!) But, where I live now, in the boondocks, I would probably invite the cop in for a cup of coffee and pump him for information on what's going on, and if there were any way I could help him out, while still protecting my house & family.

[biathlon]

Ditto for the LEOs up here. The main force to deal with will probably be the legions of starving cannibals from(insert your nearest city here)that actually had the means to get out.

The first few months or so are gonna be real ugly.

[Mikeg175]

Most LEO today are 9-5er's ( insert shift ) they are about the paycheck and the benefits , do their 20-30 yrs , get a pension and then get a real job . When SHTF they will pack their gear and go cower with their families . There will be a few of them who are in it to serve and protect , but they are few and far between . Most are decent to good folk , but they will worry about themselves and family first . I have no problems with LEO , a lot of my friends are LEO , and just by being around them listening to their talk and attitudes , it is about them first . They want to stay warm , dry and not mess with paperwork if they can help it . Unfortunately this also applies to the majority of National Guard also , they want to put their weekend and 2 weeks a year in and call it a day . They will assist to a point then go take of family , now this could be an East Coast thing , Im not sure . I have been to many a disaster area and have seen LEO and NG do a ton of good , but that is because most are shipped in to help and it is not their family on the line . Most will help as long as they know their family is taken care of first . This is my .02$ and hope doesn't offend any LEO or NG .

[Boyd]

x-bow a complete breakdown in society the likelyhood of the local PD wasting their time coming to your house to harass you is very low. That is of course you don't live in an area like Matt was talking about, Chicago, Detroit, LA, etc. If you're that concerned you need to bug out now and find a place where, in the event of crisis, the local law enforcement is counting on you to lend them a hand. Not harass the good folks who are just trying to protect their stuff and families.

My brother is a police officer, I know many of his co-workers, and they know me. I would recomend getting to know some of these folks, and you will be surprised to actually how decent they are. They are still hard working individuals, with a thankless job. The pay sucks and the hours are worse, but they absolutely love doing what they do. Take the time to take some community policing classes, do a ride along, heck become an auxiliary officer. The real demons are the one's in Washington, DC that are taking us down this road, not the local cop who like you has a wife and kids at home.

btw, did you notice most of those arrested are in Michigan?

I know I did.. I live 10 minutes out from downtown flint, in a suburb with an unusual chunk of land for the area ;) My backyard doesn't look all that big till you find the trail through my woods to the real backyard... But I do worry about the zombies in a PAW situation. For me, I have almost a 270 degree field of fire from my 2nd story, and the other 90 degrees is saplings so thick you can't walk, briars that would take a lot of time, effort and noise to chop through... and if they are lucky enough to find my trails back to the stream, old school bear traps and dead falls are available to put into use.

And also, living in Michigan, I have the 3rd and 4th most dangerous cities in the USA to the north and south of me :(

[Cimarron]

I have come to the conclusion that I will expect 'someone'. From where and how many is just not possible to figure so all I can do is.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[RyanMac]

I agree with Matt regarding range cards and dead zones. This is the NUMBER ONE thing you do in a defense. My suggestion - do it now. I am also looking at fighting holes for LP/OP positions. I know my weak points, now I just have to shore them up as much as I can. IT's a process for sure...
I, like others, am prepping and talking to some people who can help on watch and still pull their weight on the place. My problem so far is that they have and know how to use guns, but don't think to store ammo or food. So, they can be a burden and a blessing. But going hungry and having extra arms will be a good trade off for me I think.
THis is also why I am working on fence so I can get renewable food (goats, chickens, rabbits, and of course a garden). And yes, I have extra barbed wire just waiting to be deployed.... :)