Some discussions on Nuclear Winter

[Lowdown3]

The nuclear winter theory-

I personally don't give it a lot of play, but as survivalists we plan, prepare and postulate over some pretty rare possibilities.

So "nuclear winter" and some of the preps I did accordingly-

First off, this blows the whole "all I need is two weeks" of food storage non sense all out of the water. Even six months of food looks extremely unrealistic in this scenario. I would personally not think it's overkill to have 3-4 years of basics if your contemplating this sort of thing.

Growing food would be impossible in this scenario is at least the northern half of the country, for possibly a few years.

Extreme cold? What about those living in Idaho? Far North? We are talking tons and tons of firewood already in place drying now. Ever survived a year long winter? That could be a possibility under this scenario (notice I did not say "I" believed the theory).

What would happen in this regard?

Some people would attempt to migrate. Those that left early might survive and make it to better climates. Tons of factors there- vehicles working? Availability of fuel? Road issues? etc. Few would attempt a on foot migration say from Pocatello, ID to St. Johns Arizona. A little more sparse out west than here on the east cost.

The good news for those in those regions that stayed and truly did have enough preps- 3 or so years of food, 3-5 years of rough winter firewood and fuel, cold weather preps, etc. is that they could expect a large die off in their regions from those not as prepared. Also with 6 foot of snow on the ground, travel next to impossible, how many starving refugees are going to try a raid on your retreat?

Closer to home for you and me- would people travel down from say the colder areas of VA, NC, etc. to "sunny Florida" and Georgia? Given the differences between the east coast and the Pocatello to AZ reference I laid out above, I'd say there would be definitely more of a refugee problem on the east coast. More roads, more resources and of course more people to make the attempt.

So we here in GA might survive better in regards to the "winter" but may face more security issues. But this has been the issue with the East coast.

On refugees, security relating to:-

Down here in S. Georgia it's more potential refugees from Jacksonville and N. Florida.

Pretty much most places in the U.S. would need some sort of shelter, but particularly on the East coast.

In the worst case nuke scenario that we are discussing here- one large enough to potentially (notice the word) trigger the "nuclear winter" theory- we would incorrectly assume more ground bursts than air burst, and hence a ton more fallout. This was one of the big BS things with Sagan's theory and his book (I read it years ago, I think it's "The Cold and the dark" or some other fanciful name like that LOL). No major power would do nothing but ground bursts.

So in this theory that we are discussing, fallout would be massive. Shelter for most places in the country would need to be PF of 1,000 which means on the easiest/cheapest level- 3 foot of earth. For those blessed with a basement, this could be a corner area you built out yourself with block, rebar and concrete. Hell stacking all your bulk grains in buckets in a certain area and borrowing into the center of the stacks with some over you like a rat would be better than nothing.

So in the Carl Sagan nuclear winter theory, probably a very high portion of the population would be dead not long after anyways due to high fallout from the (scenario driven) all ground bursts. Areas in the midwest, etc. could see several thousand rad exposure (like in 1984 movie).

Given the general lack of common sense any more among the populace and the media's ability to make them dance on a string and believe whatever BS they are spouting that day, most of the GDP wouldn't have a helluva lot of clues to how bad things really were. Could their be looting of electronics stores two days after a massive nuclear exchange- yeah highly likely- with the same dunskies thinking the power will be back on in a few days and they will be kings with their 72" plasma TV's LOL.

So inadvertently that will solve some of our potential security problems as well. Dunskies running around outside when rad count is 100-300 rads an hour won't be looting too long before they are puking their guts up. Darwin will get his due LOL.

Yes just like Boer said- DISTANCE is one of your best defense issues for a number of reasons.

[Bill Foster]

I’m not trying to be a Doubting Thomas about the possibility of nuclear winter, but...in the 40’s and 50’s the US and Russia detonated a but-load of bombs. Some were underground, some air burst, but many were ground-burst. I don’t recall reading about the climate being disturbed then. Sure, an occasional test isn’t as bad as a wartime exchange of 20 or more at once, but wasn’t that looked at at the time of testing? I really don’t know, so inform me.

As far as fallout goes, we would be screwed. Some fallout decays in a few days or weeks. Some stay in the environment for a long time because they have long half-lives, like cesium-137, which has a half-life of 30.17 years (the problem coming from Fukushima). All of it gets carried around in the atmosphere for years, coming down with rain/snow landing on the crops you are trying to grow and in lakes and ponds.

[Lowdown3]

I put little stock in the THEORY.

But as survivalists, we plan, prepare for and postulate over a wide variety of seemingly impossible scenarios.

[Patriotic Sheepdog]

Not a "nuclear" winter, but the eruption of a super volcano can cause the same effect as a nuclear winter, although without the radioactive particles. There would be massive ash that would lessen further out from the eruption, but the ash in the atmosphere would cause the winter effects that could last a long time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1257_Samalas_eruption

and this one, more recent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
From the article:
At the Church Family of Shakers near New Lebanon, New York, Nicholas Bennet wrote in May 1816, "all was froze" and the hills were "barren like winter". Temperatures went below freezing almost every day in May. The ground froze on June 9. On June 12, the Shakers had to replant crops destroyed by the cold. On July 7, it was so cold, everything had stopped growing. The Berkshire Hills had frost again on August 23, as did much of the upper northeast.[11]

A Massachusetts historian summed up the disaster:

Severe frosts occurred every month; June 7th and 8th snow fell, and it was so cold that crops were cut down, even freezing the roots ... In the early Autumn when corn was in the milk it was so thoroughly frozen that it never ripened and was scarcely worth harvesting. Breadstuffs were scarce and prices high and the poorer class of people were often in straits for want of food. It must be remembered that the granaries of the great west had not then been opened to us by railroad communication, and people were obliged to rely upon their own resources or upon others in their immediate locality.[12]

In July and August, lake and river ice was observed as far south as northwestern Pennsylvania. Frost was reported as far south as Virginia on August 20 and 21.[13] Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 95 °F (35 °C) to near-freezing within hours. Thomas Jefferson, retired from the presidency and farming at Monticello, sustained crop failures that sent him further into debt. On September 13, a Virginia newspaper reported that corn crops would be one half to two-thirds short and lamented that "the cold as well as the drought has nipt the buds of hope".[14] A Norfolk, Virginia newspaper reported:

It is now the middle of July, and we have not yet had what could properly be called summer. Easterly winds have prevailed for nearly three months past ... the sun during that time has generally been obscured and the sky overcast with clouds; the air has been damp and uncomfortable, and frequently so chilling as to render the fireside a desirable retreat.[15]

Different causes, same effects from a temperature aspect. Now back in 1816, they were use to having firewood, and farming. What would the severe temps do now in the 21st century? Could ash falling limit transportation, vehicle and walking, in areas closest to the volcano? Would it cause power outages if fuel could not be delivered to power plants? What about vehicle gas...if roads are covered, would the stations have fuel? If it happened today, I think we would fair better as some areas have nuke power plants, but not many people know how to farm in their back yard, and we would have severe food shortages.

[protus]

I praying that such an event would keep tge northerners away lol.

An event that long puts us in " the road " territory of things.
Dog eat dog.... mad max style event.

[Bill Foster]

This is a Yellowstone volcano prediction map from 2014 or so. Scary stuff.