Some thoughts about defending your retreat

[Grand58742]

Spurred by the thread in the Armory Forum, just some random thoughts about your retreat and the defense of same...

Just some personal thoughts about our planning when it comes to preparing retreat defenses. Some will work, others maybe not as much, but just some thinking and possibly some motivation for the remainder of the folks on here to start thinking about as well. This is mainly from a TEOTWAWKI standpoint and not your typical short term SHTF idea. But some of the thoughts can work in both.

#1: The location myth.

More often than not, our retreats are in a somewhat secluded location. Rural areas are typically the norm and the further away from built up urban areas the better. But in a TEOTWAWKI situation, the lines between the two will become blurred as people will escape from urban areas and seek out refuge in rural areas. Sometimes it will take a couple of days; others will take weeks and maybe even months. But as supplies start to dwindle in urban areas, you can guarantee people will start looking towards the countryside for additional supplies and places to live. And suddenly your secluded remote area becomes less likely to stay hidden and on the radar so to speak.

Unless one is staying on a deserted island where there is little chance of unwanted visitors, everyone

[Grand58742]

#2: The manpower assumption

“I have XX amount of bodies in which to plan my defenses.” Okay, good idea in theory, but is that taking into account what you actually have right then and there? For example, you know for a fact you have five families coming to your retreat (let’s just say for argument’s sake it’s a really nice retreat that can sustain all those folks) in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Now are you certain all five families are going to make it? So let’s assume they do for a moment and you plan your defenses. Are you taking into account the sick, lame and injured? The “I have a migraine and cannot perform today” types? The injuries that can and will happen? Can your defensive plans handle the loss of one or two? Or maybe half in the event of a cold/flu outbreak that affects most of the group?

Now let’s assume only three out of the five families made it and add to your manpower. Are your plans in depth enough to account for the sudden loss of X amount of bodies? Let’s face it, things can and will happen during a TEOTWAWKI situation that prohibits groups from arriving as they should. And knowing this, one should take into account the decrease in manpower that will come. And in preparedness, proper planning is king.

How do you attack these problems? By basing your estimates on knowing who actually will show up. Start at one family and move up to your maximum number. Your defenses should take into account a ten percent rule (ten percent of the manpower will be unavailable for duty due to sick/lame/injured) and still be able to function. In this percentage, round up to the next ten for your real number. I.E. Sixteen people capable of performing defensive duties and five are out. That’s 31%, so round up to 40%. It’s not an exact science, but should work okay in your situation.

Plan on removing a selected number of people from the equation and plan your defenses that way instead of going on the assumption everyone will be available for duty as needed. Plus shift work as you will have to post sentries at night. Do your plans take this into account? Nighttime is the enemy and the friend. It is a friend since a lot of folks will not be using higher technology to plan attacks and gives you a time for rest. But it is an enemy as it does provide concealment for attackers and confusion on the part of the defenders. If you are looking at a somewhat well trained adversary (let’s assume they are military trained) and has access to night vision or thermal technology, you are already on the bad side of the equation.

So before you make plans for the maximum number of bodies available for duty, make plans to remove a selected portion of that number just in case. As life happens, so will accidents and bodies not show up like they are supposed to.

[Grand58742]

#3: The good neighbor myth

[Grand58742]

#4: The critical thinking in defense

“I don’t need to defend this or that area” or “I have to defend everything” train of thought. Based on manpower (or the lack thereof) one must consider what is critical and needs defending and what can be sacrificed before mounting a counterattack or successful defense. In looking over your defenses, think like the opposition. What areas are critical for my continued survival and have to be defended? What areas are not so critical and need to be defended as manpower dictates? What areas are not important enough and I should plan on covering them as a last resort without stretching my manpower out too thin?

The military calls it the CARVER Matrix. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CARVER_matrix They use it to determine what areas are vulnerable and which ones can be lost without losing mission effectiveness. The acronym stands for Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability. It uses a numbering system that will aid in the highest level of survival to the lowest. So let’s look at a makeshift CARVER Matrix and apply is against a long term survival retreat. I’ll use a well as an example.

Criticality: Highly critical as survival is dependent on a consistent water source
Accessibility: The wellhead itself is somewhat easily accessed depending on type
Recuperability: The well cannot be replaced easily if it is destroyed
Vulnerability: Highly vulnerable as errant gunfire can damage components
Effect: High impact on mission accomplishment as one cannot go long without water
Recognizability: Not as recognizable as other structures

And in using the CARVER Matrix to determine defensive priorities, we can include the water well and nine other items. These are just ten randomly selected items I grabbed off the top of my head and are not an inclusive list.



And in sorting the data, we have highest defensive priority to the lowest.



Going highest to lowest in terms of survival, the highest number is defended first and the lowest is last. So our well would be first priority and the avenues of approach the last. Again, this is something I threw together and is by no means gospel. But one can see the idea behind the CARVER Matrix and how important it can be in planning defenses of a retreat. These numbers will change as location changes at your retreat as water is far more valuable in the Southwest than say the Southeast. Only you can determine what can be lived with or lived without, but at the same time, look at it from the opposition standpoint. Normally hungry people will ignore a well and go straight for the food. Or ignore the generator and go for your weapons. Is electrical power highly critical to your survival or are you off the grid enough to survive without it? And will that generator run without fuel? So what is more important? The generator or the fuel that runs it?

The spreadsheet I put together is assuming the water and ammo supplies will be inside your housing structure which would be defended. And this is why they are lower on the matrix than the crops in the fields. Fields are highly accessible which makes them a larger priority. Lots of folks plan on defending avenues of approach, but forget about the house behind them. Maintaining a watch on avenues of approach is one thing. Providing defensive forces to cover an avenue of approach is different.

I would say use the CARVER Matrix as a guide when determining your defenses. It’s generic enough for anyone to use, but specific enough for individual needs. But you have to determine what you can and cannot live without before applying it to a retreat setting.

[Grand58742]

#5: The hiding in plain sight myth

Which more or less goes with the location myth but in reality is its own portion. However, some plan on being low key enough to avoid detection. But this is a myth as signs of civilization are always apparent to those who look close enough. Take your bug out cabin in the mountains for example. You have your cabin and enough land to grow enough crops to live comfortably, water from a well, game animals in the local area that can be harvested, etc. Nice location, but you want to keep is a secret. So you go to great extents to conceal the fact it’s being “lived in.” But there are always telltales of occupation. Take this for example…

You move into your cabin and the first thing you do is clean the cobwebs from the windows so you can see better. Maybe sweep the porch, grab that plastic bag that blew in from Lord only knows where and put it in your garbage or bury it, update your woodpile and replace the old tarp on top. Now what signs have you left?

Clean windows are a sign of occupation as is a swept porch. Minor debris and whatnot in a yard is to be expected in an unoccupied location. The hole you dug up will leave signs for a couple of weeks until the soil settles back down and the minor remains are washed away. Your newly cut woodpile will leave sawdust and the wood is a different color as it hasn’t been weathered. Plus there is a distinctive smell of freshly cut wood that lingers. The tarp is new and not frayed as an unoccupied location might be. You are also creating a path in the grass and nearby forest pointing to signs of recent activity.

The point is, no matter what we do to try and hide in plain sight, there is nothing we ever do that cannot hide the fact our retreat is occupied. You can limit the amount of activity, but there is nothing that can be done to “hide in plain sight.”

[Grand58742]

#6: The technological and armament superiority myth

[1Admin]

Excellent post, five stars!

LOTS of reality in that post, thank you.

One thing I learned over the years is to have multiple plans for everything. The folks that talked all the smack about bugging out at the "first sign" of problems will be the ones sitting on their butts with a beer in their hand watching TV rationalizing everything out (inaction) when they should be on the road.

If your going to "depend" on people, your going to need multiple approaches to this. Some local to balance the not so local crowd, the family connection (they need to be all trained as well) as well as scaling down perimeter areas if need be, good use of fencing, channeling, electronic devices, detection devices, etc.

[monkeybird]

I'm always amazed at how much I learn from this forum. However, I also realize just how vulnerable I am. Having never been in the military as I'm an older female, some of the information is beyond my ability to understand. While reading the info, I know instinctively that this is important information, but I also know I don't have the ability to implement the suggestions.

However, the hiding in plain sight was interesting. You're absolutely right about the lived in look. You would have to plan for designing an abandoned look to your property. That is very difficult to do.

I also agree with the neighbors being nice thoughts. I have lovely neighbors, but I know that they are not blood. If it came down to my child or theirs - guess what I'd choose.

Anyway, your insightful thread has shown me just how vulnerable we are.

[Rmplstlskn]

I'm moving to Washington, DC next to a Salvation Army Soup Kitchen...

Seriously, it gives one pause about how defendable we really are...

Rmpl

[2682nscovell]

These are great points. I would actually create a site that would expand on these issues and maybe some possible solutions to these.

[Grand58742]

I've actually been meaning to pick up a copy of Rawles book about selecting a retreat to see if he addresses anything like this. I kind of figure he might and it would give some insight on how to combat the problems.

But the biggest thing is location and one cannot create a one answer fits all to the questions posed here. It's on the individual to discover their own answers. Like the CARVER Matrix, one can't determine for others what their defensive priorities will be. We can only observe and offer suggestions.

Maybe as my retirement I'll be a BOL inspector and offer advice lol

[tmcmaster]

Excellent post.

Reminding me just how little I actually have done, and how much is left.

[Tackleberry]

Wow! You should have a show on A&E and you should call it "Mythbusters"..... oh wait, it's already been taken. Seriously though, excellent posts. There's a ton of cogent thought and wisdom in what you said. Definitely worth reading again, and again, and again.

[max velocity]

I think this is an execllent thread and something that I touch on in this post:

https://www.survivalandpreparednessf...vival-Location

I notice people asking about this and at the risk of too much is a 'sell' I have to say that this is the subject of my book 'Contact' (in my signature line), which covers not just the 'gold standard' of positional defense but also the realities of it, as covered by the OP here. If anyone wante more infomation or help I not only direct them towards 'Contact' but also check out my website: it may seem commercial but I actually work full time with a 'real job' and do limited amounts of consulting, and I don't charge money for advice unless I actually have to go somewhere to do a defensive survey or provide training. The book is designed for you as prepper and does not require that you do morning PT, shave your head or march about. Military tactics are incorporated to help you, not just for the sake of doing them or 'because that's what I know' etc.

More in the next post:

[max velocity]

Some more reality:

Just to add to this mythbusting thing, and to add to my thread in the link above, there are some realities to consider:

1. There is the gold standard of retreat location, situation and defense. Defensive tactics will be a great help, but I am not just concerned for those in ideal situtaions, but also for those who for whatever reason are preppers but situated in urban, suburban or less than gold standard retreat locations. This is where sensible plans and tactics really become important.

2. If we assume a situation of TEOTWAWKI and food runs out in the cities and riots ensue, followed by 'golden horde' movement along lines of drift, then there will be millions on the move and they will fan out down the roads like water flowing. People are resilient and don't just keel over and die. They will be on the scavenge and sooner or later even the most isloated retreats will be found and approached. It could be in the form of beggers, aggressive mobs, or maybe even more organized marauder gangs on the forage. You cannot rely simply rely on the classic gold standard prepper retreat.

3. For those in more suburban areas you will have to hunker down till the madness passes. You will then likely have to make some movement to a better location, which will involve risk and require tactics and planning. It may be that if you can hunker down in the initial stages, counter to much of the 'myth', you may end up in a fairly quiet neighborhood as the evacuating horde swarms and passes. Maybe just with some lower level security threats. If you have a large garden you may even be able to subsist there for a while. For example, my suburban neighborhood has half acre wooded lots, so given suitable attention to opsec there is potential to subsist there for a while. I am not saying this is better than the gold stabdard retreat, I am saying that it may just be all you have and it may be workable with some attention and planning.


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