Going cash for the short run

[Lowdown3]

Been a couple times in the last 10 years I've moved money in my Roth to cash (money market fund) and sat on the sidelines.

Sometimes I've missed opportunities, sometimes it was because some "guru" said the crash was coming within 2 months and gave some compelling reasons.

I've bought into some mutual funds during a really down market. Including snapping up an Asia fund for $5.77 a share one time and selling it about 18 months later when it was back around $12. a share.

Sitting on the sidelines here and there has cost me potential gains now and then. Last correction (within the last 3 months), I was waiting for the market to get down to 15,000 before buying in a little bit again. It got a hair under 15,400 IIRC. I kept to my target of 15,000 and didn't buy. When it buoyed back up to 16,300 I looked at the $1.50 per share I could have made in 2 months and regretted it.

Now 3-28-14 , I'm thinking it's time again to be happy to be in cash. Will I stay in there for the next 10 years cause every guru claims it's time to get out of the dollar? Probably not. Is there some things there that make me a little leery? Yep. So right now I'm about 80% cash. If/when the market drops I'll set my target buy prices for the funds I've tracked and bought and sold many times over the last 14 years and I'll watch for bargains. I'm not married to them and often times when I can make 8% or so, I'll sell and get out. Beats the .001% on a money market right now.

To be sure, this is one part of a retirement savings plan. No, I'm absolutely NOT putting money into the market while I have no food storage, etc. We have no debt, own everything we have and have cash and PM reserves.

Why am I putting money in a Roth? Cause the S MAY HTF, but it's a guarantee that I will get older. And while my preps, our homestead, alternate energy system, food production, etc. is all PART of my retirement plan; my Roth is PART of my income plan during retirement.

Further, at some point in time I think the gubmint in it's infinite quest for socialism and free shiz for the masses, WILL end the "tax free" applications of the Roth. Is there also the possibility of them grabbing some of all retirement accounts? Sure. That's why you need multiple dozen eggs in multiple dozen baskets.

The way I figure it, the people in there 60's and over now are pretty much the last serious "savings" generation. So if the gubmint is going to jack people retirement money, they need to do it soon before this generation passes. Talk to most people in their 30's and unless they basically have something like a 401K their work set up for them, few have done a lot on their own.

Anyone else going cash right now?

[rockriver]

I've sure made dumb moves in the investing dept.
a few good ones... more dumb than good regrettably.
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something to consider...
if a person goes to cash and the govt pulls the Cyprus grab one day... the money market will get hit..
however if the person put the cash in the gun safe or tin can under the mattress it is out of reach of the gov't.
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I sure agree with your sentence about many eggs in many baskets.. and your examples... pm, food, paying off debt, etc..
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I believe there is huge manipulation in all markets.. my next investment will be in some additional fencing/gate, a compact tractor,
an outhouse, water storage tank, solar, all the stuff we talk about on here!!
rr

[Lowdown3]

Cash in the bank of "Serta" is definitely part of the plan as well. IMO, we should strive to be able to cover at least a year of expenses from cash on hand, i.e, FRN's.

Here's the thing with the Roth. The gubmint (hate to use the following word..) "gives" you the ability to invest $5K a year tax free. Yes could they jack it, sure. They could also jack everything you own.

I've watched too many people that cashed completely out of IRA's, 401K's, etc. in 1987, 89, 91, 93, 95, 97,98, 99, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, etc. that SHOULD be retired now but are still working. Perhaps if they looked at their retirement savings as part of the overall plan things would have been different.

Even those that haven't been into the preparedness game long should be able to think back and remember at least 2-3 times in the last few years the siren call of "get out of dollars" and "market crash inevitable" has been hollered. During that time frame, funds I bought at $10.74 went to $14.95 whereas the return on the "bank of Serta" was negative when you factor in inflation.

So I think some smart investing is part of your overall plan. Does that mean you should max out your 401K while you don't have food for your family? Hell no I think that's negligence of the highest degree.

We have to balance the "could" of S hitting the fan with the very real possibility of each of us aging and eventually needing to retire.

Spokes on a wheel. If one spoke breaks, usually the other spokes can take the weight of the wheel.

[610Alpha]

well said!!

I am researching bitcoin not as an investment but to use it and understand it. I will use it up until the moment they say you have to put a chip in your body to buy stuff. There was a satire article about a society that only used a bitcoin and some crazy people were introducing "cash". I like the fact that the Fed can't create more. You can make it as private as you want. For merchants there are huge benefits, lower costs compared to credit cards. Like I said I am going to learn how to use it but I am not going all in and I doubt I ever will but I like the ability to use this other means of "money".

TV shows and news have demonized bitcoin...why? Because it isn't controlled by central bank. Its anonymous. The nice thing is that there is a finite # of bitcoin, unlike green backs they keep being printed.

As with anything if you don't know how it works don't put your money in it.

Don't buy all the doom and gloom. Mt. Gox was in trouble for a while.

[Grinnan Barrett]

I totally agree. Right now I am moving more and more to cash and property. I spoke to my investment guy ( a friend of forty years and fellow survivalist VP of major bank group) and he is putting me and more into rock solid investments that are not market sensitive like stocks. We cashed in a bunch of stock while the market was on a high just before the down turn late January this year. I would rather lose a little than lose a ton by getting greedy.

While land is on a high in AR I am selling off our farm in NW Arkansas and moving that money into property nearer our home base. I am really glad by investment guy kept me out of gold when it was on a high. I could have lost my shirt on that one. GB