North Korean Saber Rattling!

[qrprat77]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130305/DA4QTUEG2.html

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea vowed Tuesday to cancel the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War, citing a U.S.-led push for punishing U.N. sanctions over its recent nuclear test and ongoing U.S.-South Korean joint military drills.

[thedreamers]

i'm so tired of hearing NK,Iran, or Isreal, even Japan n China moaning n groaning about attacking or killing or this that and the other thing. man it gets old especialy with every thing going on here at home. personally i wish they would either piss or get off the pot and sit down. sorry just me venting.....

[Grand58742]

Standard response I'm afraid. Each time we or the UN bring up additional sanctions or start an exercise, they threaten to come across the border or cancel the cease fire agreement or start their own exercise.

Red Dawn fantasies and all aside, they simply cannot move south without the support of Russia (not likely) or China (very unlikely). Russia has too much to lose on the export markets that have brought up and are keeping their economy strong. China won't support it because to pick the NK side means alienating a whole slew of their largest markets (us and the EU).

Simple economics, neither Asian big boy can afford to support the crazy man in North Korea without cutting their own throat at the UN and in the international export markets.

[jimmycthemd]

Simple economics, neither Asian big boy can afford to support the crazy man in North Korea without cutting their own throat at the UN and in the international export markets.

WHOLE different world than it was in the 50's.

[Matt In Oklahoma]

WOLVERINES!

[Pete]

Standard response I'm afraid. Each time we or the UN bring up additional sanctions or start an exercise, they threaten to come across the border or cancel the cease fire agreement or start their own exercise.

Red Dawn fantasies and all aside, they simply cannot move south without the support of Russia (not likely) or China (very unlikely). Russia has too much to lose on the export markets that have brought up and are keeping their economy strong. China won't support it because to pick the NK side means alienating a whole slew of their largest markets (us and the EU).

Simple economics, neither Asian big boy can afford to support the crazy man in North Korea without cutting their own throat at the UN and in the international export markets.

Very good point!

[Bearman202]

Grand, you make some good points, but don't they assume you're dealing with a rational mind? I'm not sure that's the case here. I spent three years in Korea while I was in the Air Force, and I noticed two things about Koreans: 1) I never met a lazy Korean. They didn't have welfare or food stamps. If they didn't work, they didn't eat. 2) They were all absolutely convinced that being Korean was the height of human development. If you weren't Korean, you didn't matter. They tolerated us, and took our money, but considered us a much lower form of life.

The other problem I'm hearing about is widespread hunger in North Korea. One guy told me that there are something like 10,000 children missing up there, with the implication that they're being eaten. I can't confirm that, but I do know that they don't have the agriculture to feed their people. ONE bad crop and people there die. At one time, they were eating the bark off trees. They expect the government to take care of their basic needs. If they can't eat, there is going to be a problem. To re-direct the anger of the people from themselves, it's not inconceivable that the government might do something exceptionally stupid, especially if they think they're going to get booted out anyway.

In other words, don't count the little psycho out.

[Spock]

all north korea has is arty and infantry scuds with nukes. they have a large armor corp but they don't have to gas to run their tanks. they have about 5k worth of home brew t-62s. their airforce is largely mig-21 varients with less than 40 mig 29s in service and a few mig 23s. the rest are mig 19s and mig 17s.

south korea on the other hand has a very good tank the K-1 which is based on out m1 but with a 1200hp TD engine they have 1500 of those. more than a match for 5k worth of t-62s. the south Korean AF flies f-15s and f-16s along with a sizeable force of old f-5s and f-4s. considering the f-5s and f-4s are more than match for the north's mig 17-21 force.

verdict: the Nork AF is ammram bait. the nork armor is K1 bait

the norks can however rain 500k in shells per hour on south korea's capital and many are large guns 175s and 240s.

that would do alot of damage.

however I don't think the norks have much of chance in a large battle. their scuds will get downed by patriots and navy SM-3s from Agesis equiped destroyers.

the south korean military is much high tech than the norks and much much better trained and equiped. while it is smaller we've seen how a small but better trained and more technologically advanced can beat a larger but less advanced force.

[protus]

all north korea has is arty and infantry scuds with nukes. they have a large armor corp but they don't have to gas to run their tanks. they have about 5k worth of home brew t-62s. their airforce is largely mig-21 varients with less than 40 mig 29s in service and a few mig 23s. the rest are mig 19s and mig 17s.

south korea on the other hand has a very good tank the K-1 which is based on out m1 but with a 1200hp TD engine they have 1500 of those. more than a match for 5k worth of t-62s. the south Korean AF flies f-15s and f-16s along with a sizeable force of old f-5s and f-4s. considering the f-5s and f-4s are more than match for the north's mig 17-21 force.

verdict: the Nork AF is ammram bait. the nork armor is K1 bait

the norks can however rain 500k in shells per hour on south korea's capital and many are large guns 175s and 240s.

that would do alot of damage.

however I don't think the norks have much of chance in a large battle. their scuds will get downed by patriots and navy SM-3s from Agesis equiped destroyers.

the south korean military is much high tech than the norks and much much better trained and equiped. while it is smaller we've seen how a small but better trained and more technologically advanced can beat a larger but less advanced force.

We've also seen more than once in history a force that is not on par training and technology wise hold off or beat by submission larger more advanced opponents. While I don't think we need worry about nork invaders ...we should not "assume " they will be steamrolled

[thedreamers]

never under estimate someone with nothing to loose and something to gain. the north will take big losses but they will dishout a big first strike.

[Grand58742]

There is something to be said for superiority in numbers and little to lose. Take Stalingrad for example. The battle broke the German Army who kept feeding men into the line, and although being vastly superior in technology, still fell to the sheer numbers the Russians were able to field. The difference being? The Russians knew they couldn't go back. And even though facing superior technology were able to hold them off and eventually win.

Difference being? North Korea doesn't have the sheer numbers the Russians did back in 1941. It's an all in or nothing situation for them. They attack and they know they can't go back. There are no more conscripts coming into the line. There is no further equipment being produced far behind the range of bombers and artillery. They either win or die.

With the UN resolutions still in effect, countries are still supposed to provide support in South Korea in case of war. Realistically? The US, UK, Australia, maybe New Zealand, maybe a smattering of NATO countries. And also, most of the nations I mentioned have been in combat in Iraq or Afghanistan in the past ten years including South Korea. They have enough combat veterans in the ranks to help keep down the initial fears of getting shot at to a minimum. Different form of fighting sure, but bullets whizzing by your head cause the same reactions whether the terrain is sand or a marsh.

Look for China and Russia to sit on the sidelines and wait to be the "peacemaker" as that would serve their interests more so than fighting. In the "big world" picture, being the one that promotes the peace (and potentially the status quo) is seen as more powerful than the belligerents.

[Not_Yet_Prepped]

First:
Everyone is Capable of Stupid!

Second:
What about other "Rogue" elements... Any enemy of my enemy is an ally kind of thing?

So lets play just a 3 step chess game here:
So say North K decides to do something stupid (point one) and Iran (other Rogue element) says lets divide the forces here. So they attack too, now what does that "big picture" look like (what is the 3rd step)?

Third:
Well we know both China and Russia have openly stated they will back IRAN. So in essence WWIII could be started by stupidity in North K.

Remember we are told that the world went to war over 1 kill in the past. But that was just the "tipping point". The stage was set for War before that little event. The stage is pretty much set again and it won't take much to start it off. So what is that 'little event' that starts WWIII ? North Korean? Iran? Another Drone Strike on a another "sovereign nation"? China's housing bubble?

You must Link the stories you hear in the News... The News no longer tells us the real "connections" or importance of events so we must do it our selves.


For example:

Current Story One:
We know China has built whole cities (large enough to house millions) that are totally empty.

Current Story Two:
Chinese People are allowed to invest in very little, pretty much only worth while investment for the middle class is real estate.

Old Story:
China while being the most populace country is a dieing country. The 1 child policy per couple for decades now and not everyone is "coupled".

Real Story we should be talking about:
So their country is about to see massive population decrease and they are already way over built with funds from their middle class. What happens to their economy when they realize they have 3 homes built for every family? Well you have a Billion people that are going to be very upset. The STATE run media is going to make sure the STATE is not to blame... Blame game will start up and it points the finger at someone and that will most likely be the Western World. That is NOT going to go well for the Western World.

[Chief]

Another thing to look at is they have been doing the 1 child policy for awhile now. So most families in China believing in having that one a boy, they now have a country full of men. This is my opinion and I am not trying to start a conspiracy theory, but what better way to build a very big army. A lot of men that need a reason and purpose in life, and that the Gov’t knows will have to be directed correctly.

Pretty much a country full of testosterone, and itching to see who the big boy and the block is. Especially when it is a country who thinks they own most of the South China Sea and a couple of its Islands and countries in the surrounding area. China also has some old grudges against others in that region.

As China grows and looks to eventually become the biggest economy in the world, the next 20 years could be dicey.

[creman]

Look for China and Russia to sit on the sidelines and wait to be the "peacemaker" as that would serve their interests more so than fighting. In the "big world" picture, being the one that promotes the peace (and potentially the status quo) is seen as more powerful than the belligerents.

For a rational group yes. I do not see China or Russia as either and both would love to see America fall. Gog and Magog may have their chance soon. Right now with the political state of America, the division it has caused in it's people, and a (from most viewpoints) weak leader now would be a great time to put America into war. I'm not saying it's time for WWIII but I'm not ready to write it off yet either just because China and Russia would be smarter to stay out in our point of view. We forget often that emotion over-takes logic most often, especially in areas that have been fed a line their entire life.

[Spock]

We've also seen more than once in history a force that is not on par training and technology wise hold off or beat by submission larger more advanced opponents. While I don't think we need worry about nork invaders ...we should not "assume " they will be steamrolled

it depends on what your objective is. capture and hold a rocky country that is inhabited by brain washed fanatics with a large supply of AKs and other small arms?

yeah good luck holding that. you die the death of a thousand cuts.

btw there hasn't been a defeat of a larger more technologicaly advanced and trained army by smaller lesser equiped and lesser trained army.

however a larger low tech and poorly trained army has beaten better equiped and better trained armys who are smaller.

the red army beating the germans on the eastern front is a classic example.

Keep one country from invading another? thats another story. AK's and RPGs are not force projection. they are denial weapons. Air power and armor are force projection.

Look at the 6th day war. The 1st thing the Izzy's did was smash the Arab airforces. then they rolled out with their armor.

just like we did with iraq both times.

the norks have the ablity to hurt the south but not invade it effectively. their home grown t-62s gun likely can't penetrate the armor of the K1 tank as its the same armor type and layout as the abrams and challenger. they certianly don't have the optics and fire control the k1 has. but most importantly they don't have the fuel. war is hell. and it consumes alot of gas. you have to have fuel to train tank and air crews. you have to gas up your trucks your tanks your aircraft and north korea just doesn't have it.

tanks chew a gallon per mile. 5k tanks will eat 5k gallons of fuel per mile they are driven. 100 miles is a 1/2 million gallons of fuel. plus all the trucks and an IFVs. thats an easy million gallons of fuel.

for a country that can't keep the lights on in its capital.