Food prices

[SeldomSeenSlim]

http://www.examiner.com/article/drought-disaster-food-prices-set-to-skyrocket

This article is saying what I think most everyone that is paying attention already knows. Not zombies. Worse in my opinion.

[jimmycthemd]

Heard about this on the radio about a week ago. Been stocking up on canned veggies at Sams Club. Since most livestock eats corn/grains of some sort, expect meat prices to go up also. Envious of those with producing gardens, etc.. Bad time to live in yuppieville.

[monkeybird]

Sticker Shock at the grocery store checkout yesterday. I can't help but wonder why I'm not hearing about the rapidly escalating food prices on the news channels. Rising food cost are certainly a major concern for everyone.

[Daelith]

40 oz jar of peanut butter now cost $6.08 at Wal-mart. I've started keeping a list of the foods we buy most often, especially canned, so I can check them when other stores put them "on sale."
I've got to make a run to Sam's this weekend. Will be buying several cases of canned vegetables...corn, green beans, asparagus.

[SeldomSeenSlim]

I've seen some other articles that downplay this. Some economics guy figured out that 50% rise in corn reflects 1% rise in food cost. I can't argue with the math because I'm not up to speed on how that is calculated, but I don't think that takes into consideration the other affects. Such as farmers not being able to pay their debts or the cost of government loans to keep them afloat. Or the losses incurred throughout the industry with crops that don't need harvested or processed.

Assuming the economist's math is correct, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, things are already poised for that 1% increase JUST from corn. What about wheat, soybeans, rye, oats, tomatoes, chicken, beef, pork, etc.? I read recently, though I can't remember where, that after all of the numbers were crunched and the beans counted, the average cost to feed a family of 4 in 2011 in the US was over $800 a month. With estimates on that rising to $1000 a month in 2012. That seems like an awful lot of money for food and aside from growing your own, there isn't a lot of alternatives. It's not like an increase in car prices or phone service. Everyone has to eat.

[miked2345]

I heard on the radio just today that this could send the country into another recession.. (Like we're not in one already..) The train of thought was that high food prices will squeeze everyone's budgets so bad that they will have no disposable income for non-essential purchases. This will crap out retail sales, cause more layoffs, and on and on...

[WiseOwl]

I read recently, though I can't remember where, that after all of the numbers were crunched and the beans counted, the average cost to feed a family of 4 in 2011 in the US was over $800 a month. With estimates on that rising to $1000 a month in 2012. That seems like an awful lot of money for food and aside from growing your own, there isn't a lot of alternatives. It's not like an increase in car prices or phone service. Everyone has to eat.

Wow, if I could spend $1000 a month I would be so fat....lol or my preppers pantry would be enormous!

We get by on approx $130-150 a week for my fam of 4. My lil ones eat a ton. I also get to eat out once maybe twice a week but thats with coupons or groupons.
Diapers and milk at $30 at least.
If I had a stable location with a garden producing, we would probably save $25.
If I had a milk cow, some chickens, and some meat producing animals I could probably save another $45.
If I had a plastics plant, I could grow ziploc bags, trash bags, and tupperware.... :P



Man I want my homestead badly!

Luckily my new house is 7 miles from work. I cut out 100 miles of my weekly commute. That savings goes towards the groceries.

[BioG8r]

From Farmers POV

Beef and Dairy producers are in a Catch 22 situation having to play good farmer/bad farmer because of prices on both sides of the "game"

I have a very close friend that is a dairyman, Loves what he does, Hates what he is having to do.

He has just enough land (owned and leased) to produce a full load of feed for his herd each year give or take. He does have extra hay ground but due to lease restrictions can only produce Mixed grass and alfalfa hay on it. Mid quality feedsource for High Milk Production. 1st cutting was high quality, 2nd was low quality and quantity, worried he isn't going to get a third.

He is leaving his cows on the dry lot (not milking them as much) longer this year, He isn't planning on having enough high quality feeds to keep up full production because of the drought. He has enough feed for this summer but will be hurting through fall/winter/spring. Milk prices (or what he receives) isn't enough for him to be able to afford to ship in or buy the Alfalfa and Grains needed for optimum production, He is waiting on milk prices to soar so he can afford to feed his cows. By slowing production they are causing prices to rise. (supply/demand) At the very same time No one really knows where the price of commodities (feedstuffs) is going to top out at. Worst drought in 50 years for a great deal of the country ESPECIALLY the Corn producing areas.

Beef is a little different - When prices went up this past year producers sold as much beef as possible, Market had a slight glut. Prices lowered or stayed the same. Cattlemen (and women lol) purchased replacement animals or bred like mad to get there numbers back up to take advantage of the Boon. Now many are out of pasture, and are resorting to feeding this winters hay right now.

Which means, they will need to lower their herd numbers drastically for winter. These folks will probably be able to purchase replacement heifers in the spring.
Flipside
Beef prices, on both sides of the fence, are higher this year so they might be able to purchase the Hay for winter but then there will be a deficit when it comes to being able to replace their herd numbers.

Prices are going to continue to rise, if for no other reason - MEDIA
Half (arbitrary #) of the Beef producers will be right and probably survive to produce at full or nearly full #'s the other half will be slow to recover.

Meaning less production no matter which group gets it right.

If anyone has tried to buy a calf you know how High they have gotten in the last couple of years, If you find a cheap animal, someone is; doing you a favor, unloading an animal they can't provide for, it is inferior or they simply are not watching the market.

Goat Production is up 500% over the last decade. Both dairy and meat are way up.

We as Consumers and Producers tend to be more reactive than proactive. Now is the time to go ahead and stock up on items that are going to be hit hard because of the drought.

It's already a bit late but I PROMISE it isn't going to get better before it gets worse. Most large farmers are starting to see/understand and anticipate this years low grain production.

Most of the corn right here in our area is fine but corn is not one of those things that stays in the area it is grown, We will all suffer the higher pricing. Everything made from corn/grains WILL go up in price.

On a positive, we know a man who farms thousands of hectares in the Ukraine - He says his production is superior this year, maybe they will bail us out of this crisis!!

Buy it if you can... Just don't let it go bad on you!! But we all know that!

[BioG8r]

I obviously left out; fuel, labor and land. We all know both fixed and variable costs are getting harder to manage by the day.
If you haven't recently...try to price a pole barn or any structure. you'll get a 30 day or less quote with a price change addendum!

[blankstare]

just getting started, it's gonna get much worst.....interesting times ahead

[EddieMc]

Frightening times ahead! I've been buying my meat in bulk. I normally buy 1/4 of a cow at a time, in various cuts. It's definitely a good idea with what's going to happen in the near future. I have a big garden where I grow cabbage, tomatoes, zucchini, peppers, strawberries, and some herbs. I also have an emergency seed bank. Now is definitely the time to start growing your own and stocking up on whatever you can.

[miked2345]

I was checking store prices yesterday on some of the LTS items I packed in mylar last year.... I found at a few stores that white rice had DOUBLED in price since last year! Runnig over to Sams Club, I found I could still get a 50 lb bag of rice for $16.99, so I picked up a couple bags... before they raise their price too!

[SeldomSeenSlim]

Beef, pork and chicken will probably dive in price in the near future. Folks are selling off what they can't feed. If you have the storage space, now would be a good time to look for deals. They're talking 5%+ increase on meats once the glut is used up.

[MustangGal]

Beef, pork and chicken will probably dive in price in the near future. Folks are selling off what they can't feed. If you have the storage space, now would be a good time to look for deals. They're talking 5%+ increase on meats once the glut is used up.

I just bought 30 lbs of ground chuck on sale for $1.99 a pound. If we eat it once a week, we will have enough to last a little over six months. Thankfully, we have a freezer stocked with pork, rabbit, and chicken we have raised ourselves. I guess I better keep an eye out for enough to last us a bit longer.

Looks like I will be making a trip to Sam's this weekend too!

[SCinPNW]

I am closely watching the local flyers for food items that are on special, particularly meat, fruits, and veggies. Right now I can get whole chickens locally grown for $.89/lb, another store had them for $.79/lb. but they were iffy looking so I passed. Last night I picked up local cherries on sale for $1.49/lb so I purchased 15 lbs. for canning.

My goal is to get the pantry and freezer loaded up with fresh meat and canned food that I have found on sale and then I am going to have some "no spend" grocery months where we just eat out of the pantry and what we have on hand.

SC