Sunspots and solar activity

[Grand58742]

I don't know if it's happening more frequently or it's just getting reported more. Some strange things happening with our closest star these days.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/13/x-class-solar-flare-sunspot_n_1670668.html

[BioG8r]

I am in the same frame of mind... Is it News or Is it a real threat?
Our Power infrastructure has been hit many times and they have caused some pretty severe yet relatively isolated damage in the recent past.
I have read about the Carrington event of 1859. It has been said that if an event like this happened today it could cripple our way of life! I'm not a "huffer" but this link is pretty eye opening;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/13/x-class-solar-flare-sunspot_n_1670668.html

and a high tech survival gear blog lists some of the most dangerous ones in the last 150 years the blog has a name.... something to do with a green bug or something like that.... not spamming I have no loyalty or never even purchased from there....
These could really wreck a good internet connection among many other things.

[qrprat77]

The Carrington Event is one of the few times we can really look at how an EMP type event can effect us. It caused fires along telegraph lines, sent the Auroras south/north to the tropics, and supposedly affected bird migration patterns. It was very cool!
The Wikipedia article is spot on in this case, well worth a look.
Here's the short skinny on sun weather and how it affects earth weather.
1. Solar flares can happen any time there are sunspots.
2. There are usually sunspots, but sometimes there are none, and sometimes (less often than no spots at all) there are "a lot"!
3. The number of sunspots varies on an eleven year cycle.
4. We are on the upward trend of a solar cycle.
5. This cycle has been less active than other recent cycles
6. That doesn't mean there won't be a Carrington type event.
Looking at the Carrington event, we can notice a few things that made it real special.
A. There were several flares involved.
B. There was a 'super flare' involved (nobody knows how big it was, but from Carrington's description, it may have been the biggest one ever seen)
C. It was pointed more or less right at us.

Think of the sun as a wingshooter, and a Sunspot as a shotgun, the solar flare is when the shotgun shoots, sub atomic particles released by the sun called Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) are the shot. Here on earth, we are ducks on a string, flying around the sun. We talk about the time it takes for the earth to turn around as one 'day', the sun turns around too, it takes it about 28 days to do that. Our hunter is kinda drunken shooting pretty much anywhere. I'm sure there's some math involved that could better inform us as to when it's more likely to shoot, but right now, all we can do is watch the shotgun. When we see the man shoot, two things happen, there's a bright flash from the shotgun, and it sends shot our way. The bright flash is more than just visible light, it's x-rays, 'cosmic rays', UV light, and a whole host of other such 'ionizing radiation'. It arrives to earth about 8 minutes after it happens because it's travelling at the speed of light. About 1-3 days later, the shot arrives, and causes further havoc the ionosphere has to deal with.
That's when things could get hairy.
I think the greater danger lay in the damage that will be done to the ionosphere by the CME than in any EMPish type Pulse. That is a complicated discussion.
In short:
--I think most electronics will work after a large flare.
--Long range communication WILL be affected. Your ability to adapt to that (Changing frequency upward, using directional antennas, increasing power, or just waiting a while)
--Having shelter will be VITAL. You will need to stay out of the sunshine!

any questions?

[WiseOwl]

My phone update said an X 1.4 got shot off yesterday afternoon

[Matt In Oklahoma]

When we were shooting yesterday i got the alert from Space Weather news at http://spaceweather.com/ on my phone and a couple of us discussed it. It's a good way to watch whats going on in your environment

[miked2345]

My phone update said an X 1.4 got shot off yesterday afternoon

So how big does it have to be before I start putting my electronics into the big metal trash can in my basement???

[WiseOwl]

So how big does it have to be before I start putting my electronics into the big metal trash can in my basement???

I don't know. I know X class are the worst

[Matt In Oklahoma]

So how big does it have to be before I start putting my electronics into the big metal trash can in my basement???

This will hit in the morning so nothing wrong with tonight at least temporary

[WiseOwl]

This will hit in the morning so nothing wrong with tonight at least temporary

The solar flare got me and the family to Orlando in record time. :p

[qrprat77]

So how big does it have to be before I start putting my electronics into the big metal trash can in my basement???

It's more a problem of how directly will it hit us, and then size. Multiple M class flares can cause interesting things to happen if conditions are right. Also, I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about. Modern electronics are not the power grid. The grid, I think, is vulnerable, your GPS, not so much, unless the magnetosphere is damaged in the event, you are more than likely ok. Modern transistors tend to be pretty hard to destroy once they are in the circuit. The only paranoid precaution I would specifically worry about it disconnecting the electronics from the power grid.
In short, if you don't have something all Faraday caged up right now, and the flare occurs, you have exactly 0 seconds to get your electronics protected. If the CME looks like it is going to hit the earth, and the flare itself didn't whack your electronics out, you could have 12-72 hours.


***EDIT***
A GPS may not be the best example, because the satellites that let the GPS figure out where it is could be damaged/destroyed in a severe geomagnetic event, or communication to those satellites could be lost temporarily as the ionosphere supercharges.

Anything that uses a radio could are at greater risk for damage/ being temporarily knocked out.

[qrprat77]

Here's the prediction:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/index.html

Storm may produce some lower latitude Auroras.
Watch the North!
Let's hope it just looks purdy.

[benjaminblake]

The sky won't fall man! its just a routine event. It may affect some communication sattelites, which may go off for a couple of hours. Nothing more than that!