Economic Freefall?

[Patriotic Sheepdog]

I have been reading that many "experts" believe we may be heading into a double-dip ression. I started thinking what may be some indicators and came up with these.

1. The housing sector is still in the slumps despite the Federal $8000 rebate. Many are calling for a further decline in real estate prices (comercial and residential). If this happens we could see further banking troubles.

2. Unemployment is still 9.5% if you believe the .gov figures. I have seen numbers as high as 16.5%. There are about 45% of these that have been receiving benefits for longer than 27 weeks. Businesses are not hiring...gov is though, but we are not seeing the numbers high enough to meet the number of people entering the workforce. Teenage unemployment is at it's highest.

3. Government debt is now over $13 TRILLION with no stopping in sight. In July the defict was over $165 BILLION. We now are seeing monetizing of debt which no matter how you slice it, it is PURE inflation.

4. The Stimulus plan is sputtering. It has not gained traction despite the tremendous amount of tax-payer money thrown into the syetem to make the economy better. There has yet to be a true market generated recovery. I have heard that we have spent about 80% of the stimulus money, where is money going to come from if they decide on another bailout?

5. Credit is still a problem. Banks have gotten money from the bailout, but have been unwilling to loan much of it as they don't see what is around the corner...I believe they know what is coming, and that is why they are holding back on loans. Credit drives a recovery. If people and businesses cannot get credit we will not see a recovery.

6. Our politicians (including local, county, state and federal) are still spending money like drunken sailors (my appologies to the sailors). As long as they keep spending and not cutting back...well, we won't see a recovery for a while.

This is my list, I'm sure I have missed some so help me out. What else should we watch for. What will tell us that we are in a true recovery?

[crossbow]

companies and people who have to buy their own med insurance will see a large increase in their premiums which will slow companies from hiring even more.

[Rmplstlskn]

Ain't nothing but the HURT comin'

Rmpl

[Bearman202]

Okay, the biggie on the horizon is the Universal Health Care thing. That kicks in in January, I think, and will require small businesses with a certain number of employees to buy health insurance for them. Many small businesses are barely making a profit now, and that should put the finishing touch on them. They will close. Small business is the major employer in this country, and if they go away, the economy goes with them. Another good indicator is college enrollment. When people can't find a job, they go back to school. If we set a new record, like last year, it's an indicator that there aren't any jobs out there. Just one more thing to watch.

[Bearman202]

One more thing. Sales taxes are down, because nobody has any money to buy anything. Because of that, many cities and towns are cutting back, because they aren't allowed to go into deficit spending. Then will start laying off or "furloughing" people, which will make more people unable to buy stuff, which will increase the spiral. That spiral is only going in one direction.

[GAGLOCK]

Not looking good is it? Baby boomers retiring and drawing social security which is at this point in the red. Pulling their retirement funds out of the stock market as well.

[Patriotic Sheepdog]

Gosh, I can't believe I forgot the healthcare crap! I'm in the healthcare industry and still left it off my original post, arrgh! Thanks guys for picking up my slack...

Yep, less sales tax revenues==gov's increasing fees and taxes===harder for people to pay these fees/taxes====less consumer spending=====less sales tax collected, and on and on it goes.

[Rmplstlskn]

Yep, less sales tax revenues==gov's increasing fees and taxes===harder for people to pay these fees/taxes====less consumer spending=====less sales tax collected, and on and on it goes.

Look for the INTERNET SALES TAX soon...

[Bearman202]

I was talking with a friend yesterday, and she told me that her friend's mother had to go to Kansas City to get a job. Her friend's mother is an R.N. It used to be that if you were an R.N., you had a job. Now, the hospitals are cutting back on staff to the point that there are more nurses than jobs. That's kind of scary. Who is taking care of the people in the hospitals?

[monkeybird]

The cut back on patient care in hospitals began when the Government Medicare program developed DRGs - a system in which the hospital get a flat fee for a specific illness regardless of any complications. Hospitals began trying to develop way to cut back. These cut back are probably the reason that hospitals have become dangerous places.

Cutting back on staff is indeed happening all over the country. The ratio between RN and patient l become dangerous. The nurse can only give the basics! Think of Lucy in the Chocolate Factory. As government takes more control of healthcare - you might be better off at home!~

As for the economy, I'm spending on prepping and little else. I believe that the time is short for getting 'your house in order'.

[Rmplstlskn]

It used to be that if you were an R.N., you had a job. Now, the hospitals are cutting back on staff to the point that there are more nurses than jobs.

Same with my wife's field, Radiation Therapy... In the 90's and early 2000's, facilities were BEGGING for Therapists to come to their facilities, giving huge bonuses and great TEMP pay. Full-time was anywhere there was a hospital with cancer treatment. Now, it is very hard to find open positions... but at least the pay is still decent.

I won't even sing the blues about my field, IT... What isn't going overseas is being taken by new grads for miserable wages... Why bother anymore?

Rmpl

[EX121]

Another large concern is that with all of the so called stimulus money being spent, it still doesn't address the crumbling infastructure, roads, bridges etc.
Last fall we had a wind strorm here in eastern washington that blew down one power pole on a major line it blacked out half the county because there was no way to re-route power, due to another downed line. The pole was up in the mountains, and it took several days jsut to mobolize the equipment needed to repair it.
While the power was only out for 3 days with fairly good fall weather if it had been a month later the results could have been much more serious.
A lot of people just don't realize how close to edge our society is.