Where will the intruders come from?

[biathlon]

Ditto for the LEOs up here. The main force to deal with will probably be the legions of starving cannibals from(insert your nearest city here)that actually had the means to get out.

The first few months or so are gonna be real ugly.

[slingshot]

Cops are merely a cross-section of our society. As our society gets more corrupt, you'll find more corrupt cops. As long as police agencies recruit from the human race, they'll inadvertantly hire some dipsticks. However, we still have a lot of good people in our society and that is reflected in the fact that a lot of good people are cops. I put in 25 years in 3 different agencies. I've known officers that were lay and ordained preachers on their own time. I've known cops that were fired, jailed, and even one that was put on death row for raping & murdering women. Just a cross-section of our society is all they are. If I lived in New Orleans (one of the most corrupt societies/police agencies in America,) I would be highly suspicious of any cop rolling up during a SHTF situation (hide the women & children and circle the wagons!) But, where I live now, in the boondocks, I would probably invite the cop in for a cup of coffee and pump him for information on what's going on, and if there were any way I could help him out, while still protecting my house & family.

[Urban Survivalist]

After I got my book The Urban Survivalist Handbook published I was contacted by a friend in the local Sheriff's office and was able to do some consulting. That has stemmed into a business and now I have a consulting business with 50% of my clients being LEO's and EMS personnel. I have talk to every LEO I have worked with and everyone has told me that if it comes down to SHFT they are going to be with their family not kicking in doors taking citizen's guns or things like that. Here in Arizona the majority of the population is very pro gun and that includes LEO's. Here in AZ LEO's see what’s going on and are getting prepared to do one of two things bug in or bug out with prepared food and water storage and proper security measures. As with everyone, your job doesn't mean @#%* when you are trying to keep your family alive. 99% of LEO's are good people just like me and you. There are bad cops but it’s a 1% thing. If you get to know a LEO you just might find out that if you make a friend you have a tactical partner if the SHTF and they might get you out of a ticket one day too.

[Mannlicher]

I think that there are way too many variables for any reasonable answer. Things will be what they will be. Be prepared.

[Bearman202]

Bull, I like the Pac-man approach here. Make them think you're leaving, then come back with an obvious advantage. Works for me. :-)

[Bull]

Cops are just like any other group of people. Some good and some bad. If TSHTF completely, then you see them showing up, I would be suspicious. Why are they there? Your neighbors complained about your generator being too loud and they want to enforce a noise ordinance? Doubtful. I've done L.E., but in the Coast Guard. There were decent folks with common sense, and guys who would try to nail you to the wall for jumping a boats wake on your jet sky. They would go out of the way to be pricks. I've been pulled over plenty and dealt with both kinds. I have L.E. friends and hear their stories. I think you have to weigh out the situation and be cautious of everything. In the appropriate time I could see them showing up, but don't think a crooked cop isn't fully aware of how to use his position to further his bad intentions. You have to be extra cautious at some point because it makes no sense at that point for a cop to be coming there. You have to use your street sense, common sense, intuition, or whatever. If you needed a ride tomorrow because you broke down, some people might not put of the vibe you would be comfortable with, and you would have to follow your gut. Anyway, you would like to think of the cops and military who serve out of a sense of honor and an obligation to do good and all that. Those folks are the type that are more likely to be thinking like we do in the first place and be upstanding people, with their own values and reasonable judgement. Then you have ones who are zombies, and they are likely to follow orders without thinking, and do what they're told, and it doesn't matter how stupid the law or situation may be. Then you have ones that are crooked. You have to worry about the last two.
Family, friends, neighbors, and lost, wandering other types of decent folks are not so bad. They can be driven or desperate enough to be dangerous but they at least have something in their head you could try to appeal to with reason, and you should be able to pick up on some kind of bad vibe, or that something isn't right if they start to get to that point. Everyone else is a threat, and you have to be the leader, especially if they are at your place. It should be obvious to whoever you allow to be there and enjoy your good graces, that you are the designated leader, and decider of behavior and standards. They, you could hope, will fall in line and begin to prepare for the others, who you should assume will eventually come. "I didn't come to you. You came to me. I obviously have thought about this stuff more than you and am more ready to deal with it than you. So listen to me, pull together, and we will make it. More people will come and they won't be the type to want to talk about this like we are. Lets get ready." Something like that.
I think that the manner things go bad, will make threats of one kind or the other more likely. Bad cops are more likely to come with political unrest and such over the growing police state, and an economic collapse. Something like NBC, EMP, or major natural disaster type stuff and everybody is going to want to pull together, or cling together to survive, and cops and everyone else won't matter to much. There is a difference in having things build up to a disastrous point so that bad folks can build up the malice to attempt horrible things because of their status, and a clear cut situation of survival.
Thrown into a survival situation, good people will hesitate to do bad things, even though they are getting closer from desperation, and bad people will not have the time to hatch intricate plans so quickly. By the time they do, something should strike you as odd about what they claim to be doing in your area.
And even in your own "safe haven," you should have a plan and means of escape. If it gets bad enough I would rather be alive with nothing, fleeing from my place, than dead, trying to defend it beyond my ability. Even getting out like that can be defending it. You could have plans for the enemy to think you are giving up, running away, and they are winning, you get out to the spots you have already pre-staged and pre-sighted then reverse the attack/defend role, with the new advantage.

[biathlon]

Well, ya got 2 options. #1, bug out now(very much preferrde) or stay and fight off the cannibals and looters. Yer gonna be overwhelmed real quick by all the refugees from(insert your favoriet city here)and will have little or no option. Git outa there now. Good luck.

[Cimarron]

exactly right.a friend of mine and i had a similar discussion last night.the whole deal was how many people do invite to your click?
children asside the more you invite the more you have to feed.so with that is there a set number?

you will need watchs,people who have knowledge,people who can handle a firearm....but in the same thought all those mouths are going to have to have food.
its requires thought for sure.however the other thought would be stay or run.again both weigh out pretty good but both have there downsides also.

Same here. I was having this discussion with my wife. If a encounter is hostile and is going poorly for our side we may have to bug out from the retreat.
She said something like "Why would you leave, Your in your house and safe?"
My reply was "Not if they're shootin thru the walls and windows and trying to burn the place down"

I agree, it takes a lot of thought and some preparation to know when to stay or go.

[mosinfan]

exactly right.a friend of mine and i had a similar discussion last night.the whole deal was how many people do invite to your click?
children asside the more you invite the more you have to feed.so with that is there a set number?

you will need watchs,people who have knowledge,people who can handle a firearm....but in the same thought all those mouths are going to have to have food.
its requires thought for sure.however the other thought would be stay or run.again both weigh out pretty good but both have there downsides also.

[Cimarron]

Any intruder, is just that, an intruder. Until you prove them non hostile and know their intention to you and your property, you HAVE to consider them suspect, regardless of what they are wearing, or what they were before TEOTWAWKI.

More to my question was in the chance of encounters. I think Arcangel touched on this the best with this.

"As for how and how many.... too many variables. (I agree with James Rawles in that...) You can expect that the closer you are to a major city you are, the more will come if they know where you are"

I had an idea of taking a map and locating the biggest Metropolis near you. Taking a "bulls eye" (think target/archery practice) place the center dot over the entire city. This is where everything bad that can happen...probably will.

Next, take the expanding concentric rings of the bulls eye generating away from the city, and let's say they represent ten miles between each ring with five rings total. The percentages of the chance of an encounter would be higher closer to the city depending on if that individual was driving or afoot. I guess you could add rings and keep subtracting your percentage chance but let's face it there is always going to be some chance so I don't think that would be very effective.

[Matt In Oklahoma]

@ crossbow LOL no there is no such thing as SHTF or knowledge of what will happen, we were discussing disatsers, specifically N.O..
If there werent good folks, LEOs, soldiers etc. out there we would already be in SHTF. Again plenty of mistakes are made but in every instance in your unknown authored article someone sent them and in most, someone (civilians as is being said) complained to start the whole ball rolling. I think that those laws were made by "civilians" which far outnumber LEOs who are hired by "civilians" to enforce the laws "civilians" make.

50 yrs, you have had no contact, doesn't sound like there is much of an issue, seems like you make a good case that if you arent doing anything you probably won't even talk with them much less just be randomly arrested or forced to pay the "National debt".

I do agree that they could be a threat as you stated but no more than anyone else. OCPD police chief was in the sunday paper today whining about being undergunned today after one of their officers got shot up so they are not in that good a shape with weapons and being feared.

[Tofu]

Tofu- please check Michigan off my list of places to live and or visit. ;)

Its too bad, Michigan is really a beautiful state. Most of the people that I have met from Michigan have been very cool.

[arcangel911]

Crossbow- I am unfamiliar with NY's problems in such regard. However, I do know that most of the current on the line firefighters in NY start out around 28,000.... so I am seeing where you are coming from.

As for money, no one really knows what will happen first. It maybe worth something today, but tomorrow.... eh, GOK. Tomorrow toilet paper maybe worth more. (Got to make sure I stock up on toilet paper and phone books.... ;) )

Honestly, I have stopped reading newspapers and watching most TV. The only news I see constantly is "bad news". Occasionally, they aire something that is a positive thing, but for the most part I find it boring and silly news. I care what goes on in the world, but does it always have to be negative?

But I don't think LEO are going to be showing up in droves at my door. They will have enough to worry about. In truth, I worry about all the "other kinds" of people showing up at my door.

Tofu- please check Michigan off my list of places to live and or visit. ;)

[crossbow]

Crossbow- are you looking at this from a Martial law standpoint?

No, I'm just looking at it from what I see and read it newspapers from around the country, here's one that i read in a NY paper last week, after a while you lose all respect for people wearing badges and unions. this is not only up in NY, it's going on all over, people losing their jobs and government,state, county workers getting raises


ALBANY, N.Y. — Cuomo has blocked $20,000-plus raises for 28 top brass in the state police that were approved in the waning days of Gov. David Paterson’s administration.

Cuomo said Wednesday he was “shocked” to learn of the raises that were approved as some 900 state workers were facing year-end layoffs and the state confronts an upcoming $10 billion deficit.
ALBANY, N.Y. — Cuomo has blocked $20,000-plus raises for 28 top brass in the state police that were approved in the waning days of Gov. David Paterson’s administration.

State police officials had requested the raises so the top brass would earn more than unionized majors, who now get up to $170,756 annually under their contract. In a letter to the state Budget Division, Assistant Deputy Police Superintendent Terence O’Mara had said that because the state police is a paramilitary organization, the “the salary inequality” needed to be fixed to support the chain of command.

Cuomo’s decision was first reported Friday by the New York Post.

State police spokesman Lt. Glenn Miner said this was an action by the governor’s office, and any comment should come from there.

The executive raises would have boosted staff inspectors to $173,756 yearly and the first deputy superintendent to $182,756. Assistant deputy and deputy superintendents’ pay would have ranged between those two figures.

Are these LEO worried about the 900 state workers that got laid off or the over taxed tax payers who have to come up with the money? can you imagins 182,756 per yr and they don't even have to go out on the streets,don't punch a time clock, have a car furnished with all the perks.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2011/01/gov_andrew_cuomo_halts_20000_r.html

[Tofu]

x-bow a complete breakdown in society the likelyhood of the local PD wasting their time coming to your house to harass you is very low. That is of course you don't live in an area like Matt was talking about, Chicago, Detroit, LA, etc. If you're that concerned you need to bug out now and find a place where, in the event of crisis, the local law enforcement is counting on you to lend them a hand. Not harass the good folks who are just trying to protect their stuff and families.

My brother is a police officer, I know many of his co-workers, and they know me. I would recomend getting to know some of these folks, and you will be surprised to actually how decent they are. They are still hard working individuals, with a thankless job. The pay sucks and the hours are worse, but they absolutely love doing what they do. Take the time to take some community policing classes, do a ride along, heck become an auxiliary officer. The real demons are the one's in Washington, DC that are taking us down this road, not the local cop who like you has a wife and kids at home.

btw, did you notice most of those arrested are in Michigan?