3 to 5 day prep run lag

[Lowdown3]

Had a few "outliers" calling and emailing this weekend regarding the financial crisis.

Why do I call them "outliers?" Because we have noticed over 30+ years of doing this that there is normally a 3 to 5 day lag time after an event before the "informed preppers" start acting on the (then 3 to 5 day old) event.

I should have charted this over the years and it may be off by a half day here or there, but 3 to 5 days is pretty damn close.

9/11 - phones were quiet that day. By the 15th maybe 1 or 2 orders for NBC gear. On 9/17 crap broke loose and my phone didn't stop ringing for about a week.

First major "covid" hits in America were in Jan and Feb 2020. News started gin'ing up talk of a "crisis" regarding it in early March. Around March 10th the flood of orders started there.

Ukraine invasion last year- preppers were calling it the "start of WWIII" (and that could be true!!!), it was almost a week after that the rush from that started.

Why do I say all this?

1. To show trends. If you think TS really is HTF, in general, you have a couple days after the event to be ahead of most prepper panic runs.
2. To show that 99% of these preppers that think they are "ahead of the game" and have "inside knowledge" are absolutely FOS. If you were ahead of the game and needed something it should have been Day 1 or 2.

You WILL be caught surprised at some point in your preparedness journey. Whether it's not having enough storage food, or thinking your money will be worth LESS soon (or less of, depending on your bank!) and you "rush" to put it into something tangible and actually USEFUL for you if things get worse, etc.

Just get used to that and understand it's going to happen. Don't think your the 1 guy with enough inside info that your not going to be caught off guard, or miss some key item. It happens to all of us, anyone who says they have it all figured out, etc. is a neophyte.

Recognize trends and if you are behind the curve, ACT and act swiftly and decisively EARLY ON. That last part is one of the biggest problems amongst preppers, they don't ACT.

Plans on paper unexecuted, lists of crap your never going to buy or do, MEAN NOTHING. Most especially if you feel the time is short.

[rockriver]

guilty! but that word is too short. so added a few more!

[prc-104]

Like the old 'father of survivalism" said:

if you don't leave the city immediately and instead wait to see what others do you'll never make it out.

[rockriver]

prc, was that Noah? Noe? those who didn't help out and stood around watching and laughing were just "swept away"

i haven't read that story in a while. but as i recall Noah's family did not do a thing to help the lookers, waiters, laughers once the event started.
no lifelines. no food. no nothing. maybe they hollered out. "hey, joe looker, there comes a log. grab it." but i don't think so
i believe they had help securing the doors, and they stayed inside being thankful that they had prepared.

[prc-104]

<Grin> Actually that was Mel Tappen, as I recall. but either way, suspect, I do.

[protus]

I gave up " worrying " about events that I can't control.
we fill gaps here and there. But I noticed what lowdown posted bout years ago. Just from discussion board topics.
Especially prep/Survival forums.
Breaking news-
pharma19 v2.0 floods hospital in NY.....
with in a week. Every thread topic is about it, and ways to be ready.

Even the new events..bank runs, trump arrest, cw2...ww3...Ukraine...economic collapse..
if it happens it happens.
I just be ready on your end for your family

[prc-104]

Thanks protus,
Very refreshing to read.
Took me a long time to realize that ,,,,and on occasion I forget it....hahaha.
Reading what you wrote made my Sunday a little brighter.

[Patriotic Sheepdog]

We all have normalcy bias. We as "preppers" need to be aware of that. Just because it has not happened in your lifetime or adult lifetime, does not mean it cannot happen. The economic system turns over every 80-100 years or so...and its time once again. Nothing can last forever, including our dominance as a world power or as the worlds currency. Look at history. This may not be the time we lose them, but it is coming at some point. I remember the 80's as I bought my first house then at 13% interest and thought that was awesome as it had been running 18%+ for a few years. I remember the gas lines and rationing as many on this forum do. But, many people do not remember those things as they were not born or if born were not "of age" to remember them. We all have seen "the ends is near" many times, I remember saying how can this country stand with a debt of $10 trillion during the Obummer days, but yet here we are. The dot-com crisis, the housing bubble, and so many other times, but yet here we are today looking at "the end times" again. Fight at having normalcy bias...I have to still fight against it... Like P says just keep putting things back, gaining knowledge/skills and be ready to shut the gates....

[prc-104]

Thanks Sheepdog,
I remember the gas lines and rationing as many on this forum do
This reminded me of "back then".

During the gasoline rationing, 2 things.
First I was flying for petroleum helicopter out over the gulf.
I saw the tons of full tankers sitting just beyond the boundry and was taking them food tv's and other stuff.

Second, I used the grey market.
Using 1 oz silver rounds, I'd visit the grey market and trade 3 silver rounds for a full tank of gas. The folks I dealt with would ignore if I had an odd or even license plate.

Think the grey market is going to grow biggy in the next few years (or months).

Food for thought...... or.....food for silver.

[protus]

15 gall9ns for 200rds of 22lr lol

[Patriotic Sheepdog]

15 gall9ns for 200rds of 22lr lol

Wow, at that rate I could have a lot of fuel....

[protus]

Exactly....lol.